May 2019 Bay Area Real Estate Stats

The May 2019 numbers are in!  We’re seeing an influx of properties in the mid million market and price adjusts on the high-end.  There are still a large number of buyers, but they are cautious and tread with care.  What stands firm is all the Bay Area offers in culture, activities and weather.  So even if the market is slowing down – we still live in the best place on earth and it is worth investing in your home long term.  Do you have any Real Estate Questions?  Contact The Caton Team – we’re happy to be of service.

 

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Got Real Estate Questions?   The Caton Team is here to help.

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The Caton Team believes, in order to be successful in the San Fransisco | Peninsula | Bay Area | Silicon Valley Real Estate Market we have to think and act differently. We do this by positioning our clients in the strongest light, representing them with the utmost integrity, while strategically maneuvering through negotiations and contracts. Together we make dreams come true.

A mother and daughter-in-law team with over 35 years of combined, local Real Estate experience and knowledge – would’t you like The Caton Team to represent you? Let us know how we can be of service. Contact us any time.

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Bubble Watch: Could the Housing Markets in These Top Cities Be Getting Too Hot?

If this isn’t the hottest topic in Real Estate – I don’t know what is.  Enjoy this article from Realtor.com

 

Bubble Watch: Could the Housing Markets in These Top Cities Be Getting Too Hot?

Home prices are skyrocketing faster than inflation. Bidding wars are breaking out. Shacks in the nation’s most scorching real estate markets are selling for over a million bucks. Things seem to be heading up, up, up. Sound familiar?

Déjà vu can be a spooky thing. Some folks these days are beginning to wonder whether the U.S. is seeing another housing bubble, like the one we suffered through beginning in 2007—and a reprise of the bloody financial carnage that followed when it burst.

Well, let’s get this out of the way right now, Chicken Littles of America: The sky isn’t falling, and the real estate market isn’t crashing. There are indeed a few warning clouds on the horizon (more on that below), but things in the world of residential housing are generally safe and steady and continuing to grow. Got that?

Those sky-high prices and ultracompetitive bids we at realtor.com® report on daily are mostly the result of a housing shortage rather than ominous signs of another real estate meltdown. The factors that led to the historic bust—easy-peasy credit for all, rampant flipping, frantic overbuilding—simply aren’t happening today.

In fact, the opposite is true these days.

“Only the most qualified buyers are able to get financing” for mortgages, says our chief economist, Jonathan Smoke.  “Flipping is back to normal. And we’re building about half as many homes as we need.”

As it turns out, not a single big metropolis in the good ol’ USA—that’s right, not even San Francisco or New York—appears to be “bubblicious,” says Smoke, who carried out an analysis of the 50 largest metropolitan markets in the country. During the bubble, home values were dramatically inflated, making the high prices unsustainable.

There are, however, a few super-duper expensive cities (San Jose, we’re looking at you) where the real estate market is showing signs of overheating, according to Smoke’s analysis. That means the high prices can’t be sustained—because as we all learned from high school (grade school?) science class, what heats up must eventually cool down.

In those smoking-hot markets, Smoke expects the relentless rate of price increases to eventually slow, or even dip, when prices hit a point that buyers can no longer afford.

“There are places that have risks,” Smoke says. “But even those places do not resemble what they looked like in their actual bubble years.”

To reach this conclusion, Smoke and the realtor.com data team analyzed 50 major housing markets from 2001 through 2015, using 2001 as a baseline year.

(Critics will be quick to point out that the country was just coming out of the dot-com bust in 2001, and then there were the terrorist attacks of 9/11. But despite those factors, housing experts consider 2001 to be the most normal, recent year before the bust, when homes were considered fairly valued. It is also the earliest year for which all the data were available.)

Smoke and his team then created an index of the six factors that create a housing bubble to assess whether any of these 50 markets were overheating. Here are the criteria:

  • Price appreciation: Are home values shooting up to abnormally high levels, outpacing inflation?
  • Home flipping: Are more homes being bought and sold for a profit within a year?
  • Mortgages:Is there a larger share of buyers getting mortgages, which they potentially could default on? Or are they paying in cash?
  • Home prices compared with wages:Are homes more expensive now for locals earning the local median income than they were in the past?
  • Home prices compared with rent prices:How do the costs of buying today compare with the costs of renting historically?
  • Construction: Are too many homes being built to meet the needs of the area’s population? If so, that could spell trouble.

We’ll say it again: None of the cities below is in a bubble. However, the top six cities—San Jose and San Francisco, CA; Austin, TX; Salt Lake City; Dallas; and Los Angeles—do show signs of overheating as prices continue to zoom up. The next four on the list—Fresno, CA; Buffalo, NY; Charleston, SC; and Portland, OR—show some elevated risk, but they seem to still have plenty of room to grow.

Let’s go to the list!

  1. San Jose, CA

Median list price: $981,500

Bubble index compared with 2001: +19%

Bubble index compared with market peak: -18%

This Silicon Valley hot spot shows the most signs of overheating, no doubt because prices jumped a whopping 10% last year when adjusted for inflation. That’s a year of seriously accelerated growth, even for the San Francisco Bay Area. Buyers are paying a premium to live in San Jose because there simply aren’t enough homes to go around, even with new construction.

But unlike the subprime borrowers who were scooping up homes before 2007, today’s buyers can actually afford the higher prices. About a quarter to a third of local real estate agent Nicki Brown’s sales are all-cash. Or the buyers are plunking down 30% to 50% on properties going for $2 million and up, says Brown, who’s with Alain Pinel Realtors.

  1. San Francisco, CA

Median list price: $855,000

Bubble index compared with 2001: +19%

Bubble index compared with market peak: -26%

Prices in neighboring San Francisco are likewise out of reach for many buyers due to the lack of residences for sale. But like their neighbors to the south in San Jose, plenty of well-paid San Franciscans can afford these properties.

Still, the insane bidding wars of previous years are tapering off as more newly constructed condos are coming online, says Patrick Carlisle, chief market analyst at local brokerage Paragon Real Estate. Luxury homes in the multimillion-dollar range are sitting on the market longer. And the area, which has seen a flood of new residents move in for work over the past few years, has recently been shedding tech jobs.

“After four years of a desperate, overheated, overbidding market … we’re in a transition to a more normal market,” Carlisle says.

  1. Austin, TX

Median list price: $400,000

Bubble index compared with 2001: +17%

Bubble index compared with market peak: -1%

The funky city, a bright blue spot in a deeply red state, may appear riskier than ever at just 1% below its peak. But it’s important to note that the recession didn’t hit Austin nearly as hard as other parts of the country. The city, with its growing tech sector, earned a spot on this list, because the cost of homeownership has since shot up as more people move to the recently crowned top city for millennial buyers.

But rather than crashing, prices will cool, says local real estate agent Josh Bushner of Private Label Realty. “The rate of increases has to slow down, unless everyone gets a 20% raise tomorrow,” he says.

  1. Salt Lake City, UT

Median list price: $347,200

Bubble index compared with 2001: +14%

Bubble index compared with market peak: -20%

The outdoorsy metropolis earned a spot on this list because home prices and rents have been rising faster than in the past, but prices are already starting to cool. Last year, they rose 6%—a full percentage point below the 7% national average. And unlike in many other cities, builders are actually putting up more of those sorely needed new homes.

Many of these residences are rising in new subdivisions about 30 minutes from the city limits, says local real estate agent Brook Bernier of Equity Real Estate. There are also new condo and apartment buildings under construction within Salt Lake City.

“Our economy is booming,” Bernier says, noting that more companies are moving to the area. That, combined with still relatively lower prices, means even “people with student loans can still afford a home.”

  1. Dallas, TX

Median list price: $335,000

Bubble index compared with 2001: +13%

Bubble index compared with market peak: -2%

Being so close to the previous peak of the real estate market, right before it crashed, may give Dallas homeowners and buyers the sweats. But it’s worth noting that, like Austin, the city wasn’t socked quite as hard as other major metros by that housing bust.

Although the local oil industry took a beating, prices in the Texas city still ballooned 9% last year. That’s because more companies are moving and expanding into the area, such as Toyota relocating its North American headquarters from California to nearby Plano, TX. Life beyond oil—it’s a wonderful thing!

“Is it scary that prices are up [9%]? Yes, it is,” says local real estate agent Debbie Murray of Allie Beth Allman & Associates. “But if the demand stays where we are, I don’t see prices coming down anytime soon.”

  1. Los Angeles, CA

Median list price: $690,000

Bubble index compared with 2001: +10%

Bubble index compared with market peak: -35%

The City of Angels shows signs of overheating as prices are up, construction is lagging demand, and there’s more home flipping in the celebrity hot spot than in most other parts of the country,

But the palm tree–lined West Coast mecca has steadily been moving out of the housing bubble danger zone, says Smoke.

“The Los Angeles market looked more overheated two years ago than it does now,” he says. “Price gains and flipping activity have both moderated from more intense levels.”

  1. Fresno, CA

Median list price: $272,100

Bubble index compared with 2001: +9%

Bubble index compared with market peak: -31%

While Fresno doesn’t appear to be overheating, prices are rising at higher rates than they have historically.

But the agricultural area, which is still reasonably priced, doesn’t appear headed for a bust.

“There were a lot of [home] flips three years ago,” says local real estate broker Alejandra Charest of Guarantee Real Estate. “Now it’s a struggle to find one.”

  1. Buffalo, NY

Median list price: $159,900

Bubble index compared with 2001: +7%

Bubble index compared with market peak: -1%

The former industrial powerhouse has fallen on hard times as manufacturing jobs have moved abroad, so it may come as a surprise that Buffalo made this list.

But although locals are still moving out (freeing up homes for buyers), home flipping and the number of new residences under construction are up.

“This could simply be [because] the housing stock needs an upgrade,” Smoke says of the construction. “Its age of housing is substantially older than the rest of the country.”

The city has also been experiencing a resurgence of sorts. Rundown buildings along the waterfront are being transformed into condos and apartments. Nearby shops and restaurants and a green space for outdoor events have sprouted.

“Buffalo has turned a corner,” says local real estate broker Ryan Connolly of Re/Max North.

  1. Charleston, SC

Median list price: $322,300

Bubble index compared with 2001: +7%

Bubble index compared with market peak: -20%

Prices in this coastal city, where horse-drawn carriages still run on the cobblestone streets, have been shooting up faster than they have historically. But the city’s economy is growing and unemployment has been steadily falling, reaching its lowest level in May since early 2008, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

“We’re not really seeing incomes go up at the same rate as [home] prices,” Smoke says. But Charleston also has more high-paying jobs now than it has in the past. And compared with, say, Silicon Valley, buying a home in Charleston is still a relative bargain.

  1. Portland, OR

Median list price: $428,600

Bubble index compared with 2001: +6%

Bubble index compared with market peak: -26%

Portland may be known for its laid-back vibe, but lately, local buyers have been anything but. The housing shortage has led to fierce bidding wars and soaring prices—11% just in 2015—as more people move into the city while local laws and sluggish construction still limit the number of new residences that can be built.

However, buyers are still able to afford the price tags that are heavy on the zeroes.

“Buyers are concerned because prices have gone up so dramatically,” says local real estate agent Deb Counts-Tabor of Oregon Realty. “But this is basic Econ 101: supply and demand. And until one of those eases, prices will stay higher.”

 

I read this article at: http://www.realtor.com/news/trends/housing-bubble-2/?identityID=9851214&MID=2016_0722_WeeklyNL&RID=353497822&cid=eml-2016-0715-WeeklyNL-blog_1_housingbubble2-blogs_trends

Remember to follow our Blog at: https://therealestatebeat.wordpress.com/

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Thanks for reading – Sabrina

The Caton Team – Susan & Sabrina – A Family of Realtors

Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices – Drysdale Properties

Sabrina BRE# 01413526 / Susan BRE #01238225 / Team BRE# 70000218/ Office BRE #01499008

 

Existing-Home Sales Lose Momentum in July

Existing-Home Sales Lose Momentum in July

Existing-home sales lost momentum in July because of stubbornly low inventory on the market across the country, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. Last month, existing-home sales posted their first year-over-year drop since November 2015.

Total existing-home sales, which includes completed transactions for single-family homes, townhomes, condos, and co-ops, dropped 3.2 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.39 million in July. Sales are 1.6 percent below a year ago.

“Severely restrained inventory, and the tightening grip it’s putting on affordability, is the primary culprit for the considerable sales slump throughout much of the country last month,” says NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “REALTORS® are reporting diminished buyer traffic because of the scarce number of affordable homes on the market, and the lack of supply is stifling the efforts of many prospective buyers attempting to purchase while mortgage rates hover at historical lows.”

Here’s a closer look at the data from July:

  • Home prices: The median existing-home price for all housing types was $244,100, up 5.3 percent from a year ago.
  • All-cash sales: Comprising 21 percent of transactions in July, all-cash sales were down from 23 percent a year ago. It is the lowest share of cash sales since November 2009 (when it was 19 percent). Individual investors account for the bulk of cash sales and purchased 11 percent of homes in July, down from 13 percent a year ago.
  • Distressed sales: Foreclosures and short sales made up 5 percent of sales, down from 7 percent a year ago. It is the lowest share since NAR began tracking distressed sales in October 2008. Broken out, 4 percent of sales last month were foreclosures, while 1 percent were short sales. Foreclosures, on average, sold for a discount of 18 percent below market value; short sales were discounted an average of 16 percent.
  • Days on market: Forty-seven percent of sold homes were on the market for less than a month. Properties typically stayed on the market for 36 days in July, down from 42 days a year ago. Short sales were on the market the longest, at a median of 95 days, while foreclosures sold in 54 days. Non-distressed homes averaged 34 days on themarket.
  • Inventory levels: Total housing inventory by the end of the month inched up by 0.9 percent to 2.13 million existing homes for sale. Still, that is 5.8 percent lower than a year ago. Inventories have declined year-over-year for the last 14 consecutive months. Unsold inventory is at a 4.7-month supply at the current sales pace.

“Although home sales are still expected to finish the year at their strongest pace since the downturn, thanks to a very strong spring, the housing market is undershooting its full potential because of inadequate existing inventory combined with new-home construction failing to catch up with underlying demand,” Yun says. “As a result, sales in all regions are now flat or below a year ago, and price growth isn’t slowing to a healthier and sustainable pace.”

Source: National Association of REALTORS®

 I read this article at: http://realtormag.realtor.org/daily-news/2016/08/24/existing-home-sales-lose-momentum-in-july?om_rid=AACmlZ&om_mid=_BXvfk$B9RrPPgx&om_ntype=RMODaily

Remember to follow our Blog at: https://therealestatebeat.wordpress.com/

Got Questions? – The Caton Team is here to help.  

Email Sabrina & Susan at: Info@TheCatonTeam.com

Call us at: 650-568-5522

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Connect with us professionally at LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sabrinawendtcaton

Please enjoy my personal journey through homeownership at:

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Thanks for reading – Sabrina

The Caton Team – Susan & Sabrina – A Family of Realtors

Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices – Drysdale Properties

Sabrina BRE# 01413526 / Susan BRE #01238225 / Team BRE# 70000218/ Office BRE #01499008

 

Cooling Ahead for High-End San Francisco Real Estate

The hottest topic these days is affordability and where the market is going.  I am at the edge of my seat watching the real estate market and wisely advising my clients.  This article touches on the high end of San Francisco Real Estate sales.  The million dollar range is still widely active for the few listings available.  I too am curious where this market is going.  And open to hear your thoughts.  

 

Cooling ahead for high-end San Francisco real estate

Nina Hatvany has worked for 25 years in San Francisco as a real estate agent concentrating on the high end of the market. Today, as a result of a reeling stock market and concerns about global economic stability and growth, the conversation with well-heeled clients has turned decidedly more cautious.

“I have a number of buyers who are just more hesitant,” Hatvany told CNBC. “They look and they talk and then they start arguing with me about the slow IPO market and overvalued unicorns. I feel like I have to argue with them about how nice the house is.”

As technology stocks slide — the Nasdaq is down 15 percent this year — and private tech valuations suffer, real estate brokers say the feverish clamor for high-end homes in San Francisco has quieted.

“Somebody who might have pulled the trigger at $5 million last year now might be a bit more cautious,” said Josh McAdam, a top producing real estate agent with Pacific Union in San Francisco. “It’s not the same environment.”

McAdam is quick to note that demand remains strong for homes selling in the $1 million range. But the high-end residences in the City by the Bay, if they are to attract buyers, now need to boast all the right finishes, he says.

For example, McAdam said only one home in the tony neighborhood of Noe Valley last year sold for over $5 million. The year before, he says a handful of homes sold in that price range and a couple even above $5 million.

Hatvany confirms the same trends. In the second quarter of last year, her firm said, 18 homes sold in San Francisco for $6 million or higher. That number dropped to nine in the fourth quarter.

One question: Will the more cautious tone now defining the ultra-high-end of the market spread to other price points?

Christopher Palmer — an associate professor at the Haas School of Business at the University of California, Berkeley, who specializes in the housing markets — said the biggest threat to price appreciation is a downturn in tech because so much of the Bay Area economy is reliant on the sector.

“Tech stocks have taken a beating in the past few months, and every time there is a stock market correction, people start to wonder if the spigot of capital that has fueled so much Bay Area growth is about to be turned off,” Palmer said.

Analysts at Fitch raise another concern, arguing that home prices in San Francisco have “risen to a level unsupportable by area income.” Fitch reports that home prices set a record last year and are now more than 60 percent above the post-crisis low of 2012.

Fitch estimates that the city’s current home prices are 16 percent overvalued relative to economic fundamentals.

Still, though home prices may fall in San Francisco, Palmer said a wave of mortgage defaults or foreclosures is extremely unlikely.

He notes that the average jumbo mortgage borrower in San Francisco had a nearly 40 percent down payment, implying that homeowners enjoy a lot of flexibility to navigate price declines before being underwater.

Palmer also highlights a benefit of decreasing home prices: “To many prospective homebuyers in the Bay Area, this is great news,” he said. “There is a substantial amount of young families that would appreciate a slowdown in appreciation to be able to get into a home.”

I read this article at: http://www.cnbc.com/2016/02/12/cooling-ahead-for-high-end-san-francisco-real-estate.html

Remember to follow our Blog at: https://therealestatebeat.wordpress.com/

Got Questions? – The Caton Team is here to help.  

Email Sabrina & Susan at: Info@TheCatonTeam.com

Call us at: 650-568-5522

Want Real Estate Info on the Go? Download our FREE Real Estate App:  http://thecatonteam.com/mobileapp

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Connect with us professionally at LinkedIn: http://www.linkedin.com/profile/view?id=6588013&trk=tab_pro

Please enjoy my personal journey through homeownership at:

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Thanks for reading – Sabrina

The Caton Team – Susan & Sabrina – A Family of Realtors

Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices – Drysdale Properties

Sabrina BRE# 01413526 / Susan BRE #01238225 / Team BRE# 70000218/ Office BRE #01499008

 

Our Economist’s Top Tips for Buying a Home in 2016 – from Realtor.com

I am reading these economic predictions as much as you are.  Enjoy this one from Realtor.com

Our Economist’s Top Tips for Buying a Home in 2016

By: Cicely Wedgeworth

There’s a lot of tried-and-true advice out there for would-be home buyers (including our own). But the housing market is changing all the time, and if you’re on the hunt for a home, you need to stay aware of the latest trends—and how they’ll hit you where you live (literally).

In order to help buyers land their dream home in 2016, the realtor.com® economic data team has done its homework on the stats that matter to come up with a short list of its best advice.

“Buyers looking to close this year need to keep an open mind and be prepared to move quickly when they find a home that meets their needs,” says Jonathan Smoke, our chief economist, citing “fierce competition among buyers.”

Start your search early

The No. 1 tip that his team came up with, Smoke says, is to kick off your home search early.

“If you’re intending to purchase, based on the volume of house hunters who are just like you, consider doing it sooner rather than later—you’re likely to get a better price and a better mortgage rate,” he says, pointing out that there’s far more inventory available relative to the number of sales in the off-peak months.

More than 85% of buyers who plan to purchase in the next year intend to buy in the spring or summer of 2016, according to the most recent realtor.com survey. With roughly 50% more listings inventory relative to the number of potential home sales expected in January and February, buyers who start their search early face less competition with nearly the same number of homes.

Comparison shop for mortgages

“Work as hard on the mortgage as you do on finding a home—this will pay dividends over the life of the mortgage that you have,” Smoke says. “Don’t just assume that the 30-year fixed mortgage is the best for you.”

Mortgage rates are expected to reach 4.65% by the end of the year (while prices are predicted to rise 3% year over year), but many consumers aren’t aware of the variety in mortgage products that can affect what they pay, Smoke says.

A lower interest rate can make the difference in qualifying for a loan to buy a certain home—not to mention saving you thousands over the life of the loan. So make sure to shop around!

Consider a new home

If there’s anything that can ease the current housing crunch, it’s new construction. But many people just rule out the option, Smoke says.

“You either know about new homes or you don’t know about new homes,” he says. “The vast majority of people don’t, and they make the assumption that they’re not right for them because they’re too expensive, et cetera.”

Just keep an open mind, Smoke advises. After all, the number of new homes on the market is expected to grow more rapidly in 2016, resulting in a 16% increase in new-home sales year over year. But the lack of awareness about new homes means you’re likely to encounter less competition.

While new homes are typically more expensive, they also come with warranties on the structure and appliances—so you’re not likely to get stuck with any hefty repair bills for the first few years.

Markets where new homes will capture a higher share of sales include Boise, ID; Charleston, SC; Salt Lake City, UT; Nashville, TN; and Myrtle Beach, SC.

Picture yourself in the Midwest or the South

The biggest issue expected to hold buyers back this year is an inability to find a home in their price range. Buyers in the Midwest and South have an advantage there.

Local markets such as Dayton, OH; Birmingham, AL; Harrisburg, PA; Augusta, GA; and Des Moines, IA, offer buyers high affordability, increasing inventory, and favorable lending standards.

Of course, relocating depends on many factors, the most important being the availability of jobs in your field and a network of friends and/or family, but if you’re living from paycheck to paycheck in California, it’s worth checking out your options.

Check out the full 2016 realtor.com housing forecast BELOW.

 

Realtor.com® 2016 Housing Forecast Predicts Healthy Market with New Construction Driving Highest Level of Home Sales Since 2006

Millennials, Gen X’ers and retirees will account for majority of 6 million homes sold in 2016

Dec 1, 2015

SAN JOSE, Calif., Dec. 2, 2015 /PRNewswire/ — New home construction and moderate gains in the existing home market will deliver the necessary one-two punch to push total home sales to the highest levels since 2006, according to the 2016 housing forecast issued today by realtor.com®, a leading destination of online real estate services operated by News Corp [NASDAQ: NWS, NWSA] [ASX: NWS, NWSLV] subsidiary Move, Inc. The forecast also identifies the top 10 markets for growth, as well as expectations for home prices and sales, interest rates and new home sales and starts.

2016 national housing outlook 
The 2016 housing market is expected to be a picture of moderate, but solid growth as acceleration in existing home sales and prices both slow to 3 percent year over year due to higher mortgage rates, continuing tight credit standards, and lower affordability. The new construction market will see more significant gains in the coming year as new home starts increase 12 percent year over year and new home sales grow 16 percent year over year. Total sales for existing and new homes will reach 6 million for the first time since 2006, a result of a strong gross domestic product increase of 2.5 percent and continued job creation. These healthy economic indicators will be tempered by lack of access to credit and rising home prices, which will ultimately limit housing demand and growth. [See table 1 for full forecast.]

“Next year’s moderate gains in existing prices and sales, versus the accelerated growth we’ve seen in previous years, indicate that we are entering a normal, but healthy housing market,” said Jonathan Smoke, chief economist for realtor.com®. “The improvements we’ve seen over the last few years have enabled a recovery in the existing home market, but we still need to make up ground in new construction, which we could begin to see in 2016. New home sales and starts will bring overall sales to levels we have not seen since 2006 and will help set the stage for a healthy new home market.”

Who are the 2016 home buyers?
Next year’s standout year in total sales will be driven by three distinct segments of home buyers – older millennials (25-34 years old), younger gen X’ers (35-44 years old), and retirees (65-74 years old), according to Smoke.

Millennials: They are expected make up the largest demographic of home buyers in 2016, having represented 30 percent of the existing home market. Driven by increasing income, millennials will seek out homes that meet the needs of their growing families – putting the most weight on the safety of the neighborhood and the quality of the home. Commute time and a preference for older homes have these buyers looking in city-centers and closer-in suburbs. According to realtor.com®’s proprietary research, the following markets are expected to be some of the most sought out markets for millennial home buyers in 2016 due to their large numbers of millennials, strong employment growth, and relative affordability.

1.    Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, Ga.
2.    Pittsburgh
3.    Memphis, Tenn.-Miss.-Ark.
4.    Boston-Cambridge-Newton, Mass.-N.H.
5.    Austin-Round Rock, Texas

 

Young gen X’ers: Accounting for 20 percent of home purchases in 2015, buyers between the ages of 35-44 will be back in the market again likely making up the second largest population of buyers in 2016. These buyers have rebounded from the financial crisis and are entering their prime family-raising and earning years. More than two-thirds of the buyers in this age group already own a home. They will be moving out of a starter home into a larger home or more desirable neighborhood. All the markets on this list are seeing an uptick in growing families, declining unemployment and growing household incomes.

1.    Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, Ga.
2.    Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, Colo.
3.    St. Louis, Mo-Ill.
4.    Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, N.C.-S.C.
5.    Columbus, Ohio

 

Individuals or couples looking to relocate or retire: This group is expected to make up the third largest home buying segment in 2016. Ages 65-74, they will be selling their current home in an effort to downsize and lower their cost of living. Last year, they represented 14 percent of home buyers. They will likely put their home up for sale at the start of the home-buying season in March or April, and aim to make a home purchase following the sale of their home. This age cohort has a very strong preference for newly constructed homes and put the most weight on their ability to customize their home. Homes in the following markets are expected to see the most retiree buying activity in 2016 due to a large share of population as well as rapidly rising home values.

1.    Boston-Cambridge-Newton, Mass.-N.H.
2.    Sacramento–Roseville–Arden-Arcade, Calif
3.    San Diego-Carlsbad, Calif.
4.    North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, Fla.
5.    Cape Coral-Fort Myers, Fla.

 

Top 10 growth markets and other winners
According to Smoke, several markets are poised for substantial growth in prices and sales. Each market demonstrates strong demand dynamics, evidenced by 60 percent more listing page views on realtor.com® than the U.S. overall and inventory that moves 16 days faster than the U.S. average. Surging demand in each market can be attributed to growing household formation, a prosperous job market, and low unemployment rates as well as large populations of millennials, young gen-X’ers and retirees. Realtor.com®’s 10 hottest markets for 2016 are:

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1.       Providence-Warwick, RI-Mass.       6.     New Orleans-Metairie, La.
2.       St. Louis, Mo.-Ill.       7.     Memphis, Tenn.-Miss.-Ark.
3.       San Diego-Carlsbad, Calif.       8.     Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, N.C.-S.C.
4.       Sacramento–Roseville–Arden-Arcade, Calif.       9.     Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, Va.-N.C.
5.       Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, Ga.      10.    Boston-Cambridge-Newton, Mass.-N.H.

 

Table 1: Realtor.com® Forecast for Key Housing and Economic Indicators

Housing Indicator Realtor.com® 2016 Forecast 2015 Expected Actuals
Home price appreciation 3% increase 6% increase
Mortgage rate Reaching 4.65% (30-year fixed) by end of year 4.15%
Existing home sales 5.4 million, 3% growth 5.26 million, 6% growth
Housing starts Overall 12% growth in home starts; 15% growth in single family home starts Overall 10% growth in home starts; 7% growth in single family home starts
New home sales Increase 16% with increased single family construction Increase 14% with increased single family construction
Home ownership rate Decreases slightly to 63.3% from forecasted 63.4% for 4Q 2015 63.4% for 4Q 2015

 

Economic Indicator Realtor.com® 2016 Forecast 2015 Expected Actuals
GDP 2.5% increase in GDP, uptick in growth 2.1% increase, declined from 2014’s 2.4%
Household income 2% growth 2.4% growth
Household formation 1.5 million increase, driven by millennials 1.4 million increase
Unemployment rate Decline to 4.8% by year-end Decline to 5% by year-end
Nonfarm employment Gain of 2.5 million jobs, an average of 208,333 per month Gain of 2.52 million jobs,  average of 210,000 per month

 

For more realtor.com data and trend information, please visit: http://www.realtor.com/data-portal/realestatestatistics/.

About Move, Inc. and realtor.com®

Move, Inc. operates the realtor.com® website and mobile experiences, which provide buyers, sellers and renters of homes with the information, tools and professional expertise they need to discover and create their perfect home. News Corp [NASDAQ: NWS, NWSA] [ASX: NWS, NWSLV] acquired Move in November 2014, and realtor.com® quickly established itself as the fastest growing online real estate service provider in the first half of 2015 as measured by comScore.

As the official website of the National Association of REALTORS®, consumers know they can look to realtor.com® for the most comprehensive and accurate information anytime, anywhere. With relationships with more than 800 multiple listing services (MLS), realtor.com® has more than 3 million for-sale listings, which account for more than 97 percent of all MLS-listed for-sale properties. More than 90 percent of the listings are updated every 15 minutes. Move’s network of websites provides consumers a wealth of innovative tools, including Doorsteps®, Moving.com™, SeniorHousingNetSM and others. Move supports real estate professionals by providing many services to grow their businesses in an increasing digital, on-demand world, including ListHub™, the nation’s leading listing syndicator and centralized intelligence platform for the real estate industry; TigerLead®; Top Producer® Systems; and FiveStreetSM and Reesio as well as many free services.

Forward-Looking Statements

This document contains certain “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements are based on management’s views and assumptions regarding future events and business performance as of the time the statements are made. Actual results may differ materially from these expectations due to changes in global economic, business, competitive market and regulatory and other factors. More detailed information about these and other factors that could affect future results is contained in News Corp’s filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The “forward-looking statements” included in this document are made only as of the date of this document and we do not have any obligation to publicly update any “forward-looking statements” to reflect subsequent events or circumstances, except as required by law.

SOURCE realtor.com

 

I read this article at: http://www.realtor.com/advice/buy/our-economists-top-tips-for-buying-a-home-in-2016/?identityID=9851214&MID=2016_01_MonthlyNewsletter-ctl&RID=353497822&cid=eml-2016-01-MonthlyNL-sub1_buying2016-blogs_buy

http://news.move.com/2015-12-01-Realtor-com-2016-Housing-Forecast-Predicts-Healthy-Market-with-New-Construction-Driving-Highest-Level-of-Home-Sales-Since-2006

 

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The Caton Team – Susan & Sabrina – A Family of Realtors

Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices – Drysdale Properties

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National Association of Realtors: Expect a More Modest Market in 2016

NAR: Expect a More Modest Market in 2016

 From: DAILY REAL ESTATE NEWS

In 2015, the housing market reached its best year in nearly a decade, but 2016 will likely see a slowdown in many housing markets across the country. Home sales are forecasted to increase this year, but at a more moderate pace, “as pent-up demand combats affordability pressures and meager economic growth,” says Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of REALTORS®.

Yun says pent-up demand, sustained job growth, and improving inventory conditions will be the main triggers pushing the expected gains in new and existing-home sales this year.

However, Yun cites rising mortgage rates, home prices that still outpace wage growth, and a fragile global economy as the main challenges that could hold back a stronger pace of sales this year.

“This year, the housing market may only squeak out 1 to 3 percent growth in sales because of slower economic expansion and rising mortgage rates,” Yun says in a new video released highlighting his expectations for the housing market in 2016. “Furthermore, the continued rise in home prices will occur due to the fact that we will again encounter housing shortages in many markets because of the cumulative effect of homebuilders under producing for multiple years. Once the spring buying season begins, we’ll begin to feel that again.”

Yun, still crunching the final month of data for 2015, expects that existing-home sales will finish the year up 6.5 percent from 2014. That marks the highest since 2006 but is about 25 percent below the prior peak set in 2005 (5.26 million sales estimated in 2015 compared to 7.08 million in 2005).

Home prices were also up. The national median home price for existing homes is expected to near $221,200 for 2015 — about 6 percent higher than 2014. In 2016, existing-home sale prices are projected to rise between 5 and 6 percent, Yun notes.

To watch the video from The National Association of Realtors by Mr. Yun please visit: http://realtormag.realtor.org/daily-news/2016/01/13/nar-expect-more-modest-market-in-2016?om_rid=AACmlZ&om_mid=_BWlrrVB9JySAyz&om_ntype=RMODaily

I read this article at: http://realtormag.realtor.org/daily-news/2016/01/13/nar-expect-more-modest-market-in-2016?om_rid=AACmlZ&om_mid=_BWlrrVB9JySAyz&om_ntype=RMODaily

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Thanks for reading – Sabrina

The Caton Team – Susan & Sabrina – A Family of Realtors

Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices – Drysdale Properties

Sabrina BRE# 01413526 / Susan BRE #01238225 / Team BRE# 70000218/ Office BRE #01499008

 

 

Here’s why 2016 will bring good news for potential homebuyers…

I find it important to share articles I come across to educate my clients and readers.  I often write my own blog entry – but find sharing information much more powerful than standing on a soap box.  Enjoy this article from Redfin found on Housingwire.  ENJOY! – Sabrina I’ve added my 2 cents in bold italics.

Here’s why 2016 will bring good news for potential homebuyers

Next year isn’t predicted to bring any giant hoopla to set off the market. However, moderate growth is more sustainable, and better for buyers.

According to Redfin’s forecast for 2016, “Most economists agree that housing prices and sales will continue to grow in 2016, just at a slower pace. Call it a slowdown, but not bad news.”

The New Year doesn’t bring all good news, with some bad tossed in the mixed. Overall, Redfin said, “All things considered, we see a fairly uneventful housing market next year.”

Here are Redfin’s five housing market predictions for 2016:

  1. Prices and sales will grow half as fast

As price growth ebbs and mortgage rates rise, more homeowners will stay put. Sales will grow about half as fast as they did this year and prices will rise at a more normal 3.5% to 4.5%, down from almost 6% this year.

According to a recent report from RealtyTrac, for more than a third of the nation’s major metro areas, home prices have reached all-time highs in 2015.

Here on the SF Peninsula housing demand is very high with so much job growth and inventory is very low.  I expect more of the same in 2016.

  1. Easier Credit

Americans for whom a mortgage has been just out of reach will have a better shot at qualifying for one in 2016.

Lenders will embrace new ways to measure creditworthiness and mortgages will evolve to serve a changing American household. For example, credit scores will better evaluate a person’s rental history and utility bill payments. More loans will allow buyers to include income from room rentals, live-in parents and extended-family members.

In a significant move for housing regulation, last week a bill was introduced in the House of Representatives that would allow Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to consider alternative credit-scoring models beyond the FICO credit score the government-sponsored enterprises currently use when determining what loans to purchase.

Yes, since the housing crash years back, lending as improved.  That doesn’t mean it is easy – it is tedious to say the least.  But it is for the overall well being of our market.  If you are thinking about buying a home – please get a full pre-approval completed with your lender of choice.  Understand your budget and adjust your wants/needs list accordingly.  

  1. More (and older) first-time buyers

We expect first-timers to make up a bigger portion of the market than they did this year. The reason is simple: The market will be more welcoming to them thanks to the aforementioned slowing price growth and easier access to loans. This year’s market dropouts have saved for bigger down payments and will be ready to give the market another shot early next year. And more of those millennials who had been holding off on buying for various reasons will finally be ready and able to in 2016.

In the Mortgage Bankers Association’s housing report that looks at the future decade, Lynn Fisher, MBA’s vice president of Research and Economics, said, “Improving employment markets will build on major demographic trends – including maturing of Baby Boomers, Hispanics and Millennials – to create strong growth in both owner and rental housing markets over the next decade.”

Oh yes, as those effected by the crash heal their credit and save their money – there will be a new influx of buyer coming into the market – again for the very first time.  We will also see millennial buyers investing in real estate.

  1. Slower market, slowing closings

The 2015 housing market was the fastest we’ve seen at Redfin. From January to October, the typical home was on the market for 36 days, four days faster than the same period in 2014. We expect the market to slow in 2016 as government-backed loans become more common and cash sales become less so. Because of low inventory, bidding wars will still be in force next year, but there will be a lower ceiling on price escalation as 2016 buyers won’t be willing or able to go as high as buyers have in recent years.

To help, here are a few tips from Minnesota Realtor Craig Kamman to help win a bidding war. On example he listed is to offer full price or more. Money is a major factor in a seller’s decision, but not the only one.

I also feel the changes in lending, that went into effect in October of 2015 – will slow down the pace of the market a tad.  Though we do see many all cash buyers on the SF peninsula who will not be tied to loan regulations.  That doesn’t mean cash is supreme king – but it does mean buyers with loans will have to set themselves apart.  The Caton Team as a tool box of tactics we use to help our buyers.  

  1. Continuing inventory shortage

The biggest risk to the 2016 market will be the continuation of inventory shortage, especially in the affordable segment of the market. The number of homes for sale shrank from 2014 to 2015 in 45 of the 60 metro tracked by Redfin. Inventory across all 60 metros is down 4 percent from a year ago.

The most recent pending home sales report from the National Association of Realtors said that sales have plateaued this fall as buyers struggle to overcome a scant number of available homes for sale and prices that are rising too fast in some markets.

The SF Peninsula has limited land.  I have already seen many homeowners add onto their existing homes instead of jumping into the buyer pool  Which also effects our inventory.  

My advice – if you want to be a SF Peninsula owner – do not give up so easy.  Each home on the market is a unique opportunity and should be treated as such.  It is a journey – not a race.  Call or click The Caton Team to learn more about buying and owning property in Silicon Valley.

I read this article at: http://www.housingwire.com/articles/35823-heres-why-2016-will-bring-good-news-for-potential-homebuyers

Remember to follow our Blog at: https://therealestatebeat.wordpress.com/

Got Questions? – The Caton Team is here to help.  

Email Sabrina & Susan at: Info@TheCatonTeam.com

Call us at: 650-568-5522

Want Real Estate Info on the Go? Download our FREE Real Estate App:  http://thecatonteam.com/mobileapp

Visit our Website at:   http://thecatonteam.com/

VISIT OUR INSTAGRAM PAGE: http://instagram.com/thecatonteam

Visit us on Facebook:   http://www.facebook.com/pages/Sabrina-Susan-The-Caton-Team-Realtors/294970377834

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Connect with us professionally at LinkedIn: http://www.linkedin.com/profile/view?id=6588013&trk=tab_pro

Please enjoy my personal journey through homeownership at:

http://ajourneythroughhomeownership.wordpress.com

Thanks for reading – Sabrina

The Caton Team – Susan & Sabrina – A Family of Realtors

Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices – Drysdale Properties

Sabrina BRE# 01413526 / Susan BRE #01238225 / Team BRE# 70000218/ Office BRE #01499008