Yun: Slowing Inflation Suggests Mortgage Rates Have Topped Out – From Realtor.com

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NAR’s chief economist shares what now needs to happen to bring down borrowing costs and increase affordability for home buyers.

August 11, 2022

Melissa Dittmann Tracey

Inflation eased slightly in July, which could bode well for the housing market in the months ahead, says Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of REALTORS®. Overall, inflation slowed from 9.1% in June to 8.5% in July, but prices for food and rent continued to climb, the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Consumer Price Index showed Wednesday.

Still, the slight deceleration suggests that consumer price inflation may have peaked, which suggests that mortgage rates also may have peaked, Yun says. The level of inflation “is still high and uncomfortable but may indicate the start of a steady retreat,” Yun adds.

Gasoline prices posted a 7% monthly decline, a significant contributor to the recent moderation in inflation. However, prices remain 44% higher than a year ago and 104% higher than two years ago. Also, the CPI showed that the rising costs of food, up 10.9% in July, continue to hit many Americans’ pocketbooks. That’s the highest increase in food prices since May 1979. Household energy costs were up 20.5%, and furniture costs were up 14.8%.

Rents continued to rise in July, up 6.3% compared to a year prior, the CPI showed. “That is a testament to the ongoing housing shortage,” Yun says.

But could the worst of sky-high inflation be behind Americans? Yun thinks so. “If there is a sustained decline in gasoline prices and more production of apartments and single-family homes, consumer prices will pull back, encouraging the Federal Reserve policy to be less aggressive,” Yun says. “Mortgage rates will fall.”

On Wednesday morning, the 10-year Treasury yield stood at 2.7%. “That should translate into 30-year mortgage rates pulling back to under 5%,” Yun says. “Some recent potential home buyers who were pushed out of the market may now be able to get back in and qualify for a mortgage.”

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Sabrina & Susan are native Californians - born and raised in the Silicon Valley with a passion for Residential Real Estate. A mother and daughter-in-law duo called - The Caton Team. With over 35 years of combined, local Real Estate experience and knowledge – would’t you like The Caton Team to represent you? Let us know how we can be of service. Contact us any time. Call | Text at: 650-799-4333 | Email Info@TheCatonTeam.com The Caton Team believes, in order to be successful in the San Fransisco | Peninsula | Bay Area | Silicon Valley Real Estate Market we have to think and act differently. We do this by positioning our clients in the strongest light, representing them with the utmost integrity, while strategically maneuvering through negotiations and contracts. Together we make dreams come true. The Peninsula is our backyard - let us help make it yours. We represent Buyer’s and Seller’s throughout the Bay Area. The Caton Team – Susan & Sabrina A Family of Realtors Effective. Efficient. Responsive. What can we do for you?

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