Why Is Housing Inventory So Low? – Shared Article

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One question that’s top of mind if you’re thinking about making a move today is: Why is it so hard to find a house to buy? And while it may be tempting to wait it out until you have more options, that’s probably not the best strategy. Here’s why

There aren’t enough homes available for sale, but that shortage isn’t just a today problem. It’s been a challenge for years. Let’s take a look at some of the long-term and short-term factors that have contributed to this limited supply.

Underbuilding Is a Long-Standing Problem

One of the big reasons inventory is low is because builders haven’t been building enough homes in recent years. The graph below shows new construction for single-family homes over the past five decades, including the long-term average for housing units completed:

For 14 straight years, builders didn’t construct enough homes to meet the historical average (shown in red). That underbuilding created a significant inventory deficit. And while new home construction is back on track and meeting the historical average right now, the long-term inventory problem isn’t going to be solved overnight.

Today’s Mortgage Rates Create a Lock-In Effect

There are also a few factors at play in today’s market adding to the inventory challenge. The first is the mortgage rate lock-in effect. Basically, some homeowners are reluctant to sell because of where mortgage rates are right now. They don’t want to move and take on a rate that’s higher than the one they have on their current home. The chart below helps illustrate just how many homeowners may find themselves in this situation:

Those homeowners need to remember their needs may matter just as much as the financial aspects of their move.

Misinformation in the Media Is Creating Unnecessary Fear

Another thing that’s limiting inventory right now is the fear that’s been created by the media. You’ve likely seen the negative headlines calling for a housing crash, or the ones saying home prices would fall by 20%. While neither of those things happened, the stories may have dinged your confidence enough for you to think it’s better to hold off and wait for things to calm down. As Jason Lewris, Co-Founder and Chief Data Officer at Parcl, says:

“In the absence of trustworthy, up-to-date information, real estate decisions are increasingly being driven by fear, uncertainty, and doubt.”

That’s further limiting inventory because people who would make a move otherwise now feel hesitant to do so. But the market isn’t doom and gloom, even if the headlines are. An agent can help you separate fact from fiction.

How This Impacts You

If you’re wondering how today’s low inventory affects you, it depends on if you’re selling or buying a home, or both.

For buyers: A limited number of homes for sale means you’ll want to seriously consider all of your options, including various areas and housing types. A skilled professional will help you explore all of what’s available and find the home that best fits your needs. They can even coach you through casting a broader net if you need to expand your search.
For sellers: Today’s low inventory actually offers incredible benefits because your house will stand out. A real estate agent can walk you through why it’s especially worthwhile to sell with these conditions. And since many sellers are also buyers, that agent is also an essential resource to help you stay up to date on the latest homes available for sale in your area so you can find your next dream home.

Bottom Line

The low supply of homes for sale isn’t a new challenge. There are a number of long-term and short-term factors leading to the current inventory deficit. If you’re looking to make a move, connect with a real estate agent. That way you’ll have an expert on your side to explain how this impacts you and what’s happening with housing inventory in your area.

Got Questions? The Caton Team is here to help.

We love what we do and would love to help you navigate your sale or purchase of Residential Real Estate. Please reach out for a personal consultation. Please enjoy our free resources below and get to know our team from our TESTIMONIALS.

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The Caton Team believes, in order to be successful in the San Fransisco | Peninsula | Bay Area | Silicon Valley Real Estate Market we have to think and act differently. We do this by positioning our clients in the strongest light, representing them with the utmost integrity, while strategically maneuvering through negotiations and contracts. Together we make dreams come true.

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Why Today’s Housing Inventory Shows a Crash Isn’t on the Horizon – Shared Article

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You might remember the housing crash in 2008, even if you didn’t own a home at the time. If you’re worried there’s going to be a repeat of what happened back then, there’s good news – the housing market now is different from 2008.

One important reason is there aren’t enough homes for sale. That means there’s an undersupply, not an oversupply like the last time. For the market to crash, there would have to be too many houses for sale, but the data doesn’t show that happening.

Housing supply comes from three main sources:

Homeowners deciding to sell their houses
Newly built homes
Distressed properties (foreclosures or short sales)

Here’s a closer look at today’s housing inventory to understand why this isn’t like 2008.

Homeowners Deciding To Sell Their Houses

Although housing supply did grow compared to last year, it’s still low. The current months’ supply is below the norm. The graph below shows this more clearly. If you look at the latest data (shown in green), compared to 2008 (shown in red), there’s only about a third of that available inventory today.

So, what does this mean? There just aren’t enough homes available to make home values drop. To have a repeat of 2008, there’d need to be a lot more people selling their houses with very few buyers, and that’s not happening right now.

Newly Built Homes

People are also talking a lot about what’s going on with newly built houses these days, and that might make you wonder if homebuilders are overdoing it. The graph below shows the number of new houses built over the last 52 years:

The 14 years of underbuilding (shown in red) is a big part of the reason why inventory is so low today. Basically, builders haven’t been building enough homes for years now and that’s created a significant deficit in supply.

While the final blue bar on the graph shows that’s ramping up and is on pace to hit the long-term average again, it won’t suddenly create an oversupply. That’s because there’s too much of a gap to make up. Plus, builders are being intentional about not overbuilding homes like they did during the bubble.

Distressed Properties (Foreclosures and Short Sales)

The last place inventory can come from is distressed properties, including short sales and foreclosures. Back during the housing crisis, there was a flood of foreclosures due to lending standards that allowed many people to get a home loan they couldn’t truly afford.

Today, lending standards are much tighter, resulting in more qualified buyers and far fewer foreclosures. The graph below uses data from the Federal Reserve to show how things have changed since the housing crash:

This graph illustrates, as lending standards got tighter and buyers were more qualified, the number of foreclosures started to go down. And in 2020 and 2021, the combination of a moratorium on foreclosures and the forbearance program helped prevent a repeat of the wave of foreclosures we saw back around 2008.

The forbearance program was a game changer, giving homeowners options for things like loan deferrals and modifications they didn’t have before. And data on the success of that program shows four out of every five homeowners coming out of forbearance are either paid in full or have worked out a repayment plan to avoid foreclosure. These are a few of the biggest reasons there won’t be a wave of foreclosures coming to the market.

What This Means for You

Inventory levels aren’t anywhere near where they’d need to be for prices to drop significantly and the housing market to crash. According to Bankrate, that isn’t going to change anytime soon, especially considering buyer demand is still strong:

“This ongoing lack of inventory explains why many buyers still have little choice but to bid up prices. And it also indicates that the supply-and-demand equation simply won’t allow a price crash in the near future.”

Bottom Line

The market doesn’t have enough available homes for a repeat of the 2008 housing crisis – and there’s nothing that suggests that will change anytime soon. That’s why housing inventory tells us there’s no crash on the horizon.

Got Questions? The Caton Team is here to help.

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Experts Project Home Prices Will Rise over the Next 5 Years – Shared Article

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Even with so much data showing home prices are actually rising in most of the country, there are still a lot of people who worry there will be another price crash in the immediate future. In fact, a recent survey from Fannie Mae shows that 23% of consumers think prices will fall over the next 12 months. That’s nearly one in four people who are dealing with that fear – maybe you’re one of them.

To help ease that concern, here’s what the experts say will happen with home prices not just next year, but over the next five years.

Experts Project Ongoing Appreciation

While seeing a small handful of expert opinions may not be enough to change your mind, hopefully, a larger group of experts will reassure you. Here’s that larger group.

The Home Price Expectation Survey (HPES) from Pulsenomics is a great resource to show what experts forecast for home prices over a five-year period. It includes projections from over 100 economists, investment strategists, and housing market analysts. And the results from the latest quarterly release show home prices are expected to go up every year through 2027 (see graph below):

And while the projected increase in 2024 isn’t as large as 2023, remember home price appreciation is cumulative. In other words, if these experts are correct after your home’s value rises by 3.32% this year, it should go up by another 2.17% next year.

If you’re worried home prices are going to fall, here’s the big takeaway. Even though prices vary by local area, experts project they’ll continue to rise across the country for years to come at a pace that’s more normal for the market.

What Does This Mean for You?

If you’re not convinced yet, maybe these numbers will get your attention. They show how a typical home’s value could change over the next few years using the expert projections from the HPES. Check out the graph below:

In this example, let’s say you bought a $400,000 home at the beginning of this year. If you factor in the forecast from the HPES, you could potentially accumulate more than $71,000 in household wealth over the next five years.

Bottom Line

If you’re someone who’s worried home prices are going to fall, rest assured a lot of experts say it’s just the opposite – nationally, home prices will continue to climb not just next year, but for years to come. If you have any questions or concerns about what’s next for home prices in your local area, connect with a real estate agent.

My two cents – we see the market soften around the holidays every year, so part of this is seasonal. The other part are higher rates than buyers are used to, so we’re slowly seeing buyers to reviewing their new budget and find homes in their new price range.

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The Caton Team does not receive compensation for any posts. Information is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Third-party information not verified.

The Stats are In… Market Snapshot for November 2023

Hello Caton Team Friends,

Here’s the latest stats! San Mateo County is adjusting, seeing prices coming down with the condo market taking the biggest hit. Looks like Santa Clara is holding firm and even seeing some gains.

It’s early December now and we’re seeing a slow down in the market. Part of it is seasonal and part are the higher rates. Clients that have to move may be willing to help buy down the rate with a credit or adjust the price – you never know till you try. Need some help navigating this market- we’re happy to chat and be of service. Reach out 650.766.4333 | Info@TheCatonTeam.com

Here’s a look at the four month trend…

How can The Caton Team Help You?

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Whether you are selling or buying – today or tomorrow – contact The Caton Team – we’re happy to help you achieve your Real Estate goals.

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Each market is unique and with over 40 years of combined Real Estate experience, The Caton Team is more than happy to be of service if and when you are considering a move. Contact us anytime during your journey, together we’ll help you achieve your Real Estate goals.

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Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices – Drysdale Properties

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The Caton Team does not receive compensation for any posts. Information is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Third-party information not verified.

The Housing Market – Shared Article

Are the Top 3 Housing Market Questions on Your Mind?

When it comes to what’s happening in the housing market, there’s a lot of confusion going around right now. You may hear one thing in conversation with your friends, see something totally different on the news, and read something on social media that contradicts both of those thoughts. And, if you’re thinking about making a move, that can leave you with a lot of lingering questions. That’s where a trusted local real estate agent comes in.

Here are the top 3 questions people are asking about today’s housing market, and the data to help answer them.

1. What’s Next for Mortgage Rates?

Mortgage rates are higher than they’ve been in recent years. And, if you’re looking to buy a home, that impacts how much you can afford. That’s why so many buyers want to know what’s ahead for mortgage rates. The answer to that question is: no one can say for certain, but here’s what we know based on historical trends.

There’s a long-standing relationship between mortgage rates and inflation. Basically, when inflation is high, mortgage rates tend to follow suit. Over the past year, inflation was up, so mortgage rates were as well. But inflation is easing now. And this is why the Federal Reserve has recently paused their federal funds rate hikes, which means many experts believe mortgage rates will begin to come down.

And in some ways, we’ve started to see hints of slightly lower mortgage rates in recent weeks. But it’s certainly been volatile and will likely continue to be that way going into next year. Some ongoing variation is to be expected, but the anticipation is, that in 2024, we’ll see a downward trend. As Aziz Sunderji, Strategist at Home Economics, says:

“The bottom line is that interest rates are likely to be lower-perhaps even lower than many optimists think – in the weeks and months to come.”

2. Where Are Home Prices Headed?

While there’s been a lot of concern prices would come crashing down this year, data shows that didn’t happen. In fact, home prices are rising in most of the nation. Experts say that trend will continue, just at a slower pace that’s much more normal for the housing market – and that’s a good thing.

To help show just how confident experts are in this continued appreciation, take a look at the Home Price Expectation Survey from Pulsenomics. It’s a survey of a national panel of over 100 economists, real estate experts, and investment and market strategists. As the graph below shows, the consensus is, that prices will keep climbing next year, and in the years to come.

3. Is a Recession Around the Corner?

While recession talk has been a common thing over the past few years, there’s good news on that front.

The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) polls experts on this topic regularly. And last year at this time, most of them thought a recession would have happened by now. But as experts look at all the leading indicators today, they’re changing their minds and saying a recession is getting less and less likely. The latest results show that more experts now think we’re not headed for another recession (see chart below):

This is big news for the housing market. And while the 48% to 52% split may seem close to half and half, the key thing to focus on is that the majority of these experts think we’ve avoided a recession already.

Bottom Line

The big takeaway? The data shows there isn’t cause for concern – there are actually more signs of hope. Reach out to a local real estate agent to talk more about the housing market questions on your mind heading into the new year.

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The Caton Team does not receive compensation for any posts. Information is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Third-party information not verified.

The Stats are In… Market Snapshot

Hello Caton Team Friends,

Here’s lasts month’s stats! San Mateo County is taking some adjusting. Looks like Santa Clara is holding firm. We’re seeing a slow down in the market and a slow undercurrent of the curious as there options out there. Clients that have to move may be willing to help buy down the rate with a credit or adjust the price – you never know till you try. Need some help navigating this market- we’re happy to chat and be of service. Reach out 650.766.4333 | Info@TheCatonteam.com

Here’s a look at the three month trend…

How can The Caton Team Help You?

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Whether you are selling or buying – today or tomorrow – contact The Caton Team – we’re happy to help you achieve your Real Estate goals.

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What can we do for you?

Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices – Drysdale Properties

DRE # |Sabrina 01413526 | Susan 01238225 | Team 70000218 |Office 01499008

The Caton Team does not receive compensation for any posts. Information is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Third-party information not verified.

Market Update –

Hello Caton Team Friends,

Here is our monthly market update for San Mateo and Santa Clara Counties:

Dated 9.30.23

And here is a little treat for anyone who reads beyond this chart.

Silicon Valley Real Estate in 2023 has been one of the most interesting years in my career. These interest rates are something else. We’re starting to see the market soften – because it has to. For instance – It’s a $2000 dollar a month difference between a 3% rate and a 7% rate on a 1 Million Dollar property – with 20% down and a 30-year fixed interest rate. That’s a decent amount of money and it’s going to affect purchase power. So yes I expect the market to soften.

Soften like butter – not crash. The Caton Team believes now is always a good time to buy or sell Real Estate. Now you ask? Yes, because it depends on your personal situation and needs. Life happens every day, situations change in a heartbeat. What we do know is this – we can do the best we can in the market we’re in.

Interests Rates won’t be high forever, price reductions won’t happen forever. Overbidding and multiple offers are still happening – on some properties – but not on every property. The Caton Team has had great success with our buyers and sellers this Spring, Summer, and Fall seasons, among all the interest rate changes. So if buying or selling is something you’re chewing on – reach out and let’s chat. It’s either a good time for your Real Estate goals or not – and only you know what that looks like.

Let us know how we can be of service – we love what we do and we’re happy to work with you.

The Caton Team | 650.799.4333 | Info@TheCatonTeam.com

Right now, I’m seeing great opportunities in the condo/townhome market – if a buyer can swing the higher rates and HOA dues – a condo/townhome is a great way to break into the California Real Estate Market. We’re seeing a lot of price adjustments on single-family homes priced at $1.5 Million + as sellers find that happy medium or opt to rent the home out. We’re here to help you find that meeting of the minds. Reach out when you’re ready to chat.

The Caton Team | 650.799.4333 | Info@TheCatonTeam.com

Thank you for reading my Real Estate blog!

-Sabrina

Whether selling a home or buying one, each client is unique and each market and price point differ. Let us customize a Real Estate strategy for you and let The Caton Team guide you to your goals. 🗝️ It’s what we do.

How can The Caton Team Help You? Contact The Caton Team 650.799.4333 | Email Info@TheCatonTeam.com

Looking forward to watching this market while guiding our clients to their goals. Let us know how we can be of service.

Contact The Caton Team Sabrina 650.799.4333 | Email Info@TheCatonTeam.com

Whether you are selling or buying – today or tomorrow – contact The Caton Team – we’re happy to help you achieve your Real Estate goals.

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Market Update – August 2023 in San Mateo & Santa Clara County

Hello Caton Team Friends,

Here is our monthly market update for San Mateo and Santa Clara Counties:

How can The Caton Team Help You? Contact The Caton Team 650.799.4333 | Email Info@TheCatonTeam.com

Looking forward to watching this market while guiding our clients to their goals. Let us know how we can be of service.

Contact The Caton Team Sabrina 650.799.4333 | Email Info@TheCatonTeam.com

Whether you are selling or buying – today or tomorrow – contact The Caton Team – we’re happy to help you achieve your Real Estate goals.

Effective. Efficient. Responsive. The Caton Team 🏡

Call | Text | Sabrina 650.799.4333|Email|Info@TheCatonTeam.com

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SOLD: By The Caton Team – San Mateo

Sold with 35 Offers in San Mateo

Opportunity Knocked in San Mateo when we had the pleasure of helping this family transition into their new life. A unique renovation opportunity – on the market for less than 1 week – we had the pleasure of presenting 35 offers to our sellers and truly wowing them. Renovation Opportunities are interesting experiences. So many contractors and buyers prefer an “off-market sale” but The Caton Team knows the power of going “on the market” and respects the importance of equality and fairness in all Real Estate dealings. We don’t sell off-market – we make sure our clients know the offer they have is the best the market can stand – and it shows. 15 confirmed offers turned into 35 on offer day – and by offer #29 – we knew we found the best price and terms for our selling clients. It was an honor to represent this family during their life transition and a true pleasure of wowing them.

We love what we do – How can The Caton Team help You?

We truly enjoy helping our clients sell their homes. The Caton Team loves what we do and would love to help you – please enjoy our resources below. Get to know us at through our clients words.

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A mother and daughter-in-law team with over 35 years of combined, local Real Estate experience and knowledge – would’t you like The Caton Team to represent you? Let us know how we can be of service. Contact us any time.

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May Market Update

Here are the stats for San Mateo and Santa Clara Counties for May 2023

How can The Caton Team Help You? Contact The Caton Team 650.799.4333 | Email Info@TheCatonTeam.com

Whether you are selling or buying – today or tomorrow – contact The Caton Team – we’re happy to help you achieve your Real Estate goals.

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The Caton Team does not receive compensation for any posts. Information is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Third-party information not verified.

Underbuilding Is a Long-Standing Problem

Today’s Mortgage Rates Create a Lock-In Effect

Misinformation in the Media Is Creating Unnecessary Fear

How This Impacts You

Bottom Line

Got Questions? The Caton Team is here to help.

Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices – Drysdale Properties, Redwood City Ca.

Share this:

Homeowners Deciding To Sell Their Houses

Newly Built Homes

Distressed Properties (Foreclosures and Short Sales)

What This Means for You

Bottom Line

Got Questions? The Caton Team is here to help.

Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices – Drysdale Properties, Redwood City Ca.

Share this:

Experts Project Ongoing Appreciation

What Does This Mean for You?

Bottom Line

Got Questions? The Caton Team is here to help.

Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices – Drysdale Properties, Redwood City Ca.

Share this:

How can The Caton Team Help You?

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Share this:

1. What’s Next for Mortgage Rates?

2. Where Are Home Prices Headed?

3. Is a Recession Around the Corner?

Bottom Line

Got Questions? The Caton Team is here to help.

Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices – Drysdale Properties, Redwood City Ca.

Share this:

How can The Caton Team Help You?

Contact The Caton Team 650.799.4333 | Email Info@TheCatonTeam.com

Whether you are selling or buying – today or tomorrow – contact The Caton Team – we’re happy to help you achieve your Real Estate goals.

Got Questions? The Caton Team is here to help.

Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices – Drysdale Properties

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How can The Caton Team Help You? Contact The Caton Team 650.799.4333 | Email Info@TheCatonTeam.com

Whether you are selling or buying – today or tomorrow – contact The Caton Team – we’re happy to help you achieve your Real Estate goals.

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How can The Caton Team Help You? Contact The Caton Team 650.799.4333 | Email Info@TheCatonTeam.com

Whether you are selling or buying – today or tomorrow – contact The Caton Team – we’re happy to help you achieve your Real Estate goals.

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Sold with 35 Offers in San Mateo

We love what we do – How can The Caton Team help You?

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Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices – Drysdale Properties

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