Making sense of this market… by Sabrina Caton (updated)

Update – Fall 2022.

Quick Read:

Well, rates went up again. This shakes things up for buyers, how much they can afford and that will impact home values over time.

Which – for buyers – is exciting because – if you can buy a home for less – you can always REFINANCE out of that high rate when rates go down! So Marry the House – Date the Rate!

Each market is impacted differently – if you’re thinking about selling and buying – The Caton Team is here to guide you. We’ve worked through several different market dynamics and have wisdom and knowledge to aid us. Reach out – we’re happy to help.

The Caton Team | Call|Text 650.799.4333 or Email | Info@TheCatonTeam.com

Long Read:

Right now, Realtors and their buyers are reworking the numbers, trying to stay within their budget and readjust their plans to accommodate for higher interest rates. Sometimes the goal changes, and sometimes there is a silver lining. 

For buyers in the Silicon Valley – anyone shopping for a home since 2020 – had low rates, lots of competition, and overbidding. When rates went up – buyers lost their purchase power and it was back to the drawing board – determining their new budget and how that translates into homes. The sellers felt it as offers dried up and escrows didn’t close. 

It’s going to take some time to hash out but life doesn’t stop.

With higher rates – buyers can afford less, so eventually, that will impact home sales and prices. But for an agent who’s always working with buyers – as scary as this all seems – this is the market we’ve been waiting for! 

There are going to be homes that need to sell, job transfers, wedding, babies – life events trigger moving events – no matter the market. So for the well-prepared buyer, even with higher rates – this is a rare opportunity to be – dare I say – the only offer on the table? This is where the real negotiating happens. Finding that middle ground where the buyer can buy and afford their home and the seller gets what they need to move forward with their lives. It’s the sweet spot.

If you’re a homeowner with no need to move – this doesn’t hurt you – it is all part of the normal business cycle. However, if you’re a homeowner who has to sell – well – some of your equity is lost for now. So if selling is a must – let’s sit down and chat about your goals and how we can make them happen. Because homes are still selling.

What we are seeing a shit to a buyer smakret, if a seller wants their price and a buyer can’t go that high, the buyer is moving on to the next. There are options out there, homes that need to sell, and price reductions galore. And if that is not enough incentive – I’ll say it – just offer a fair price. Finding that middle ground doesn’t have to be a mystery. 

For buyers – this is a wonderful time to prepare. Get your loan approved, and understand your budget and the impact of the Interest Rate. Are their homes in your reach? Then go for it? If not – then save and wait but keep that goal in mind. SAVE SAVE SAVE!

Now here’s the golden rule – Marry the House – Date the Rate. If you can afford any Real Estate in the Bay Area – even if it is not your dream house – buy it. Hold it and when the rates go down – refinance – and when the home values go up-sell and make your move. This is how it is done, the old addave – Buy Low Sell High – applies. 

So how low will it go? Not that low. Let’s stay realistic – we’re not dropping to 1990 prices – but we will see prices reflect the higher rate. 

Truthfully – for buyers – this is exciting because – if you can buy a home for less – you can always REFINANCE out of that high rate when rates go down! So Marry the House – Date the Rate! I said it three times – it’s gotta be ringing in your ears by now.

Each market is impacted differently – if you’re thinking about selling and buying – The Caton Team is here to guide you. We’ve worked through several different market dynamics and have the wisdom and knowledge to aid us and better serve you. Reach out – we’re happy to help.

The Caton Team | Call|Text 650.799.4333 or Email | Info@TheCatonTeam.com

Previous Article…
It’s the middle of 2022. The “Pandemic Real Estate” seems to have simmered down with the rate hike as we watch prices adjust. With so much chatter about “this crazy market”, I thought I’d share my insight.
Interest Rates go up and down. That’s what they do, and rates will continue to do so. We don’t control the rates. As it fluctuates – it is wise to consider saving to buy down your rate and when budgeting – round up to account for a higher rate. I prefer knowing if I lock a lower rate – I’m more than comfortable with my payments.
Back in the 80’s rates for home loans were 13%. Back in the early 2000s, we were around 5%, then we dipped down to 3% and life was good.
Now that rates are dancing around 4.5-5% over the past few weeks – we are experiencing two phenomena. Well-positioned homes are still seeing multiple offers and over-list price sales while some homes are dropping their price to garnish more viewers.

I’ve had some clients jump into getting approved – knowing when the market “slows down” they have a better chance of getting a home. I also see some clients stalling, a wait-and-see approach. Especially when a lot of “down payment funds” are tied up in stocks – those clients are forced to wait.
But if there is one thing I want to make clear – in the Bay Area – this was and is not a crazy market. This IS our market.
The San Francisco Peninsula – Silicon Valley – has had limited inventory for sale at any given time. I’ve been a full-time Realtor for going on 19 years now and we’ve always had limited inventory – thus the overbidding. Coupled with high salaries and when the Stock Market is robust – there is no stopping the Real Estate Market around here. This has fueled our prices, the over-bidding with the already low inventory – it’s classic
Supply & Demand.
What I do know – everyone needs somewhere to live and owning your own place is the best way to keep a roof over your head and create long-term wealth. Real Estate is the only investment you can live in. Real Estate prices may flux month over month, year over year – but decade over decade – Real Estate will appreciate. They have since 1849…

I am no economist and I too am glued to the news about our economy, interest rates, inflation, and gas prices. All this will be represented in Real Estate and why long-term vision is key.

Let’s look at the big picturea few questions to help you determine your course.

Do you want to live in the Bay Area?

Is your job in the Bay Area?

Do you want long-term financial security?

Do you want to stop worrying about your rent going up?

Do you have assets to invest in?

If your answer is yes, – you want to own a piece of Silicon Valley – contact The Caton Team. We’re happy to guide you through the steps of homeownership. If you’re not ready to buy today – we’ll let you know what it takes so you can plan.

I became a Realtor because, as a first-generation American, I understood what the American Dream was and it is grounded in Real Estate.

If you are considering a sale or purchase of Real Estate – The Caton Team would love to interview for the job as your Realtor. We love what we do, let us take care of you.

We believe to be successful in the Silicon Valley Real Estate Market we have to think and act differently. We do this by positioning our clients in the strongest light, representing them with integrity, while strategically maneuvering through negotiations and contracts.  

A mother and daughter-in-law team with 40 years of combined, local real estate experience, knowledge, and know-how – wouldn’t you like The Caton Team to represent you? Let us know how we can be of service. Contact us any time. Call | Text | 650.799.4333 | Email | Info@TheCatonTeam.com

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Real estate predictions for 2017

Brad Inman’s crystal ball: Real estate predictions for 2017

The year of the homeseller, a female CEO of NAR and more

Here were my predictions for 2016.

 

Here are my predicitons for 2017.

2017 will be the year of the homeseller

The most profound real estate technology innovations in the last two decades have benefited homebuyers finding homes and agents becoming more efficient.

This coming year, technologists and venture capitalists will zoom in on homesellers, with the $60 billion commission pie up for grabs.

Opendoor, Knock and to a degree transparent bidding features are examples. Using technology, more companies will figure out how to give sellers more certainty around their home sale.

Don’t miss out on the homeseller innovation parade — your livelihood is at stake.

The housing market will soar (temporarily)

Boosted by the Trump confidence pop, mortgage money will be plentiful.

IRAs (individual retirement accounts) are already increasing in value, and job creation efforts will take hold as unemployment has already reached new lows. Both of these trends will give consumers a boost in the market.

This could be short-lived as robots steal millions of service jobs, middle managers included. This trend will make overseas offshoring seem like a pimple on our butt.

Enjoy the sunlight, but stash away some of your profits for dark clouds later.

NAR will pick a woman to lead the trade group

Though the old-guard will lobby hard for anointing one of its own, the National Association of Realtors will do what the country could not — make a woman the CEO.

Remember, your hard work funds NAR, so speak up in one way or the other. If you hold an opinion, email the search committee and give them a piece of your mind.

Zillow will expand overseas by acquiring a European portal

Zillow will cross international borders through an acquisition of some type, somewhere.

Growth opportunity in the U.S. is still strong, but to fill its valuation expectations globe trotting will be necessary.

Still avoiding Zillow as a source of business?  Think twice before you continue to dismiss the giant portal.

Footnote: dotloop (a Zillow company) will come out of the closet and do some interesting things on the back end that make life easier for brokers and agents.

Opendoor becomes second-biggest broker in the country by year’s end

One year from now, Opendoor will be the second-largest broker in the U.S., second only to NRT.

By unit count — and, most importantly, by revenue — the exchange platform will give a segment of the selling market the certainty they generally cannot get when unloading their homes the traditional way.

Remember, Opendoor still works with buyers agents, so when the company comes to your market, consider how to make it work for you.

Redfin files to go public

The 10-year old online plodder will take its story to Wall Street and file to go public.

Redfin will use its new funds to capture more share in its current markets and continue to innovate and make gains on the recruiting front and with its technology.

Lots to learn from Redfin — copying their best features is one strategy to compete with them.

Equity-sharing mortgages will spread

Wall Street will provide the funds, and homebuyers in pricey markets with a sparse down payment will be the beneficiaries, as equity sharing becomes widespread because of support by Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae and the big lenders.

Learn everything you can about this new loan so you can help your buyers who are scrambling to save their down payment.

Luxury housing market recovers, but tastes change

With a U.S. President who earned his billions in luxury real estate, the high-end market will have a revival as rich people who have been hoarding their cash and hiding out from the redistributionists will tiptoe back into the market.

But tastes will change. Walkable neighborhoods will become the Cartier wrist bands of real estate, guard dogs in tow.

Docusign IPO bigger than Zillow

The paperless cruasader, San Francisco-based Docusign will  go public, shining light on the real estate efficiency race. The company’s finances will look sterling and get the attention of Wall Street technology skeptics.  The IPO could be huge.

 Mars will be subdivided

A first step in creating a new civilized world on Mars will be a plan to subdivide the far-off planet. It could pay for space exploration. That is how we pay for infrastructure on planet earth.

Some of the smartest minds in the real estate industry will get involved. But don’t be bamboozled into investing in Mars property — yet.

The present and future will merge

Bots on your phone and on everything you own or drive will help you manage many functions of your life and will be automatically updated, taking you into the future every second, whether you like it or not.

Installation artist Douglas Coupland calls this phenomenon “accelerated acceleration.” Your challenge will no longer be keeping up with technology, because it has already kidnapped a big part of your life.

Instead figure out how to hold onto, restore and grow your humanness.

Bottom line: Enjoy 2017 — it will be a fun and exciting year.

What do you think 2017 will bring????

I read this article at: https://www.inman.com/2016/12/13/brad-inmans-crystal-ball-real-estate-predictions-for-2017/

Remember to follow our Blog for the local real estate beat, a pulse on the San Francisco Peninsula at: https://therealestatebeat.wordpress.com

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Email Sabrina & Susan at: Info@TheCatonTeam.com

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Thanks for reading – Sabrina

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Our Economist’s Top Tips for Buying a Home in 2016 – from Realtor.com

I am reading these economic predictions as much as you are.  Enjoy this one from Realtor.com

Our Economist’s Top Tips for Buying a Home in 2016

By: Cicely Wedgeworth

There’s a lot of tried-and-true advice out there for would-be home buyers (including our own). But the housing market is changing all the time, and if you’re on the hunt for a home, you need to stay aware of the latest trends—and how they’ll hit you where you live (literally).

In order to help buyers land their dream home in 2016, the realtor.com® economic data team has done its homework on the stats that matter to come up with a short list of its best advice.

“Buyers looking to close this year need to keep an open mind and be prepared to move quickly when they find a home that meets their needs,” says Jonathan Smoke, our chief economist, citing “fierce competition among buyers.”

Start your search early

The No. 1 tip that his team came up with, Smoke says, is to kick off your home search early.

“If you’re intending to purchase, based on the volume of house hunters who are just like you, consider doing it sooner rather than later—you’re likely to get a better price and a better mortgage rate,” he says, pointing out that there’s far more inventory available relative to the number of sales in the off-peak months.

More than 85% of buyers who plan to purchase in the next year intend to buy in the spring or summer of 2016, according to the most recent realtor.com survey. With roughly 50% more listings inventory relative to the number of potential home sales expected in January and February, buyers who start their search early face less competition with nearly the same number of homes.

Comparison shop for mortgages

“Work as hard on the mortgage as you do on finding a home—this will pay dividends over the life of the mortgage that you have,” Smoke says. “Don’t just assume that the 30-year fixed mortgage is the best for you.”

Mortgage rates are expected to reach 4.65% by the end of the year (while prices are predicted to rise 3% year over year), but many consumers aren’t aware of the variety in mortgage products that can affect what they pay, Smoke says.

A lower interest rate can make the difference in qualifying for a loan to buy a certain home—not to mention saving you thousands over the life of the loan. So make sure to shop around!

Consider a new home

If there’s anything that can ease the current housing crunch, it’s new construction. But many people just rule out the option, Smoke says.

“You either know about new homes or you don’t know about new homes,” he says. “The vast majority of people don’t, and they make the assumption that they’re not right for them because they’re too expensive, et cetera.”

Just keep an open mind, Smoke advises. After all, the number of new homes on the market is expected to grow more rapidly in 2016, resulting in a 16% increase in new-home sales year over year. But the lack of awareness about new homes means you’re likely to encounter less competition.

While new homes are typically more expensive, they also come with warranties on the structure and appliances—so you’re not likely to get stuck with any hefty repair bills for the first few years.

Markets where new homes will capture a higher share of sales include Boise, ID; Charleston, SC; Salt Lake City, UT; Nashville, TN; and Myrtle Beach, SC.

Picture yourself in the Midwest or the South

The biggest issue expected to hold buyers back this year is an inability to find a home in their price range. Buyers in the Midwest and South have an advantage there.

Local markets such as Dayton, OH; Birmingham, AL; Harrisburg, PA; Augusta, GA; and Des Moines, IA, offer buyers high affordability, increasing inventory, and favorable lending standards.

Of course, relocating depends on many factors, the most important being the availability of jobs in your field and a network of friends and/or family, but if you’re living from paycheck to paycheck in California, it’s worth checking out your options.

Check out the full 2016 realtor.com housing forecast BELOW.

 

Realtor.com® 2016 Housing Forecast Predicts Healthy Market with New Construction Driving Highest Level of Home Sales Since 2006

Millennials, Gen X’ers and retirees will account for majority of 6 million homes sold in 2016

Dec 1, 2015

SAN JOSE, Calif., Dec. 2, 2015 /PRNewswire/ — New home construction and moderate gains in the existing home market will deliver the necessary one-two punch to push total home sales to the highest levels since 2006, according to the 2016 housing forecast issued today by realtor.com®, a leading destination of online real estate services operated by News Corp [NASDAQ: NWS, NWSA] [ASX: NWS, NWSLV] subsidiary Move, Inc. The forecast also identifies the top 10 markets for growth, as well as expectations for home prices and sales, interest rates and new home sales and starts.

2016 national housing outlook 
The 2016 housing market is expected to be a picture of moderate, but solid growth as acceleration in existing home sales and prices both slow to 3 percent year over year due to higher mortgage rates, continuing tight credit standards, and lower affordability. The new construction market will see more significant gains in the coming year as new home starts increase 12 percent year over year and new home sales grow 16 percent year over year. Total sales for existing and new homes will reach 6 million for the first time since 2006, a result of a strong gross domestic product increase of 2.5 percent and continued job creation. These healthy economic indicators will be tempered by lack of access to credit and rising home prices, which will ultimately limit housing demand and growth. [See table 1 for full forecast.]

“Next year’s moderate gains in existing prices and sales, versus the accelerated growth we’ve seen in previous years, indicate that we are entering a normal, but healthy housing market,” said Jonathan Smoke, chief economist for realtor.com®. “The improvements we’ve seen over the last few years have enabled a recovery in the existing home market, but we still need to make up ground in new construction, which we could begin to see in 2016. New home sales and starts will bring overall sales to levels we have not seen since 2006 and will help set the stage for a healthy new home market.”

Who are the 2016 home buyers?
Next year’s standout year in total sales will be driven by three distinct segments of home buyers – older millennials (25-34 years old), younger gen X’ers (35-44 years old), and retirees (65-74 years old), according to Smoke.

Millennials: They are expected make up the largest demographic of home buyers in 2016, having represented 30 percent of the existing home market. Driven by increasing income, millennials will seek out homes that meet the needs of their growing families – putting the most weight on the safety of the neighborhood and the quality of the home. Commute time and a preference for older homes have these buyers looking in city-centers and closer-in suburbs. According to realtor.com®’s proprietary research, the following markets are expected to be some of the most sought out markets for millennial home buyers in 2016 due to their large numbers of millennials, strong employment growth, and relative affordability.

1.    Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, Ga.
2.    Pittsburgh
3.    Memphis, Tenn.-Miss.-Ark.
4.    Boston-Cambridge-Newton, Mass.-N.H.
5.    Austin-Round Rock, Texas

 

Young gen X’ers: Accounting for 20 percent of home purchases in 2015, buyers between the ages of 35-44 will be back in the market again likely making up the second largest population of buyers in 2016. These buyers have rebounded from the financial crisis and are entering their prime family-raising and earning years. More than two-thirds of the buyers in this age group already own a home. They will be moving out of a starter home into a larger home or more desirable neighborhood. All the markets on this list are seeing an uptick in growing families, declining unemployment and growing household incomes.

1.    Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, Ga.
2.    Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, Colo.
3.    St. Louis, Mo-Ill.
4.    Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, N.C.-S.C.
5.    Columbus, Ohio

 

Individuals or couples looking to relocate or retire: This group is expected to make up the third largest home buying segment in 2016. Ages 65-74, they will be selling their current home in an effort to downsize and lower their cost of living. Last year, they represented 14 percent of home buyers. They will likely put their home up for sale at the start of the home-buying season in March or April, and aim to make a home purchase following the sale of their home. This age cohort has a very strong preference for newly constructed homes and put the most weight on their ability to customize their home. Homes in the following markets are expected to see the most retiree buying activity in 2016 due to a large share of population as well as rapidly rising home values.

1.    Boston-Cambridge-Newton, Mass.-N.H.
2.    Sacramento–Roseville–Arden-Arcade, Calif
3.    San Diego-Carlsbad, Calif.
4.    North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, Fla.
5.    Cape Coral-Fort Myers, Fla.

 

Top 10 growth markets and other winners
According to Smoke, several markets are poised for substantial growth in prices and sales. Each market demonstrates strong demand dynamics, evidenced by 60 percent more listing page views on realtor.com® than the U.S. overall and inventory that moves 16 days faster than the U.S. average. Surging demand in each market can be attributed to growing household formation, a prosperous job market, and low unemployment rates as well as large populations of millennials, young gen-X’ers and retirees. Realtor.com®’s 10 hottest markets for 2016 are:

View News Release Full Screen

1.       Providence-Warwick, RI-Mass.       6.     New Orleans-Metairie, La.
2.       St. Louis, Mo.-Ill.       7.     Memphis, Tenn.-Miss.-Ark.
3.       San Diego-Carlsbad, Calif.       8.     Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, N.C.-S.C.
4.       Sacramento–Roseville–Arden-Arcade, Calif.       9.     Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, Va.-N.C.
5.       Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, Ga.      10.    Boston-Cambridge-Newton, Mass.-N.H.

 

Table 1: Realtor.com® Forecast for Key Housing and Economic Indicators

Housing Indicator Realtor.com® 2016 Forecast 2015 Expected Actuals
Home price appreciation 3% increase 6% increase
Mortgage rate Reaching 4.65% (30-year fixed) by end of year 4.15%
Existing home sales 5.4 million, 3% growth 5.26 million, 6% growth
Housing starts Overall 12% growth in home starts; 15% growth in single family home starts Overall 10% growth in home starts; 7% growth in single family home starts
New home sales Increase 16% with increased single family construction Increase 14% with increased single family construction
Home ownership rate Decreases slightly to 63.3% from forecasted 63.4% for 4Q 2015 63.4% for 4Q 2015

 

Economic Indicator Realtor.com® 2016 Forecast 2015 Expected Actuals
GDP 2.5% increase in GDP, uptick in growth 2.1% increase, declined from 2014’s 2.4%
Household income 2% growth 2.4% growth
Household formation 1.5 million increase, driven by millennials 1.4 million increase
Unemployment rate Decline to 4.8% by year-end Decline to 5% by year-end
Nonfarm employment Gain of 2.5 million jobs, an average of 208,333 per month Gain of 2.52 million jobs,  average of 210,000 per month

 

For more realtor.com data and trend information, please visit: http://www.realtor.com/data-portal/realestatestatistics/.

About Move, Inc. and realtor.com®

Move, Inc. operates the realtor.com® website and mobile experiences, which provide buyers, sellers and renters of homes with the information, tools and professional expertise they need to discover and create their perfect home. News Corp [NASDAQ: NWS, NWSA] [ASX: NWS, NWSLV] acquired Move in November 2014, and realtor.com® quickly established itself as the fastest growing online real estate service provider in the first half of 2015 as measured by comScore.

As the official website of the National Association of REALTORS®, consumers know they can look to realtor.com® for the most comprehensive and accurate information anytime, anywhere. With relationships with more than 800 multiple listing services (MLS), realtor.com® has more than 3 million for-sale listings, which account for more than 97 percent of all MLS-listed for-sale properties. More than 90 percent of the listings are updated every 15 minutes. Move’s network of websites provides consumers a wealth of innovative tools, including Doorsteps®, Moving.com™, SeniorHousingNetSM and others. Move supports real estate professionals by providing many services to grow their businesses in an increasing digital, on-demand world, including ListHub™, the nation’s leading listing syndicator and centralized intelligence platform for the real estate industry; TigerLead®; Top Producer® Systems; and FiveStreetSM and Reesio as well as many free services.

Forward-Looking Statements

This document contains certain “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements are based on management’s views and assumptions regarding future events and business performance as of the time the statements are made. Actual results may differ materially from these expectations due to changes in global economic, business, competitive market and regulatory and other factors. More detailed information about these and other factors that could affect future results is contained in News Corp’s filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The “forward-looking statements” included in this document are made only as of the date of this document and we do not have any obligation to publicly update any “forward-looking statements” to reflect subsequent events or circumstances, except as required by law.

SOURCE realtor.com

 

I read this article at: http://www.realtor.com/advice/buy/our-economists-top-tips-for-buying-a-home-in-2016/?identityID=9851214&MID=2016_01_MonthlyNewsletter-ctl&RID=353497822&cid=eml-2016-01-MonthlyNL-sub1_buying2016-blogs_buy

http://news.move.com/2015-12-01-Realtor-com-2016-Housing-Forecast-Predicts-Healthy-Market-with-New-Construction-Driving-Highest-Level-of-Home-Sales-Since-2006

 

Remember to follow our Blog at: https://therealestatebeat.wordpress.com/

Got Questions? – The Caton Team is here to help.  

Email Sabrina & Susan at: Info@TheCatonTeam.com

Call us at: 650-568-5522

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Connect with us professionally at LinkedIn: http://www.linkedin.com/profile/view?id=6588013&trk=tab_pro

Please enjoy my personal journey through homeownership at:

http://ajourneythroughhomeownership.wordpress.com

Thanks for reading – Sabrina

The Caton Team – Susan & Sabrina – A Family of Realtors

Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices – Drysdale Properties

Sabrina BRE# 01413526 / Susan BRE #01238225 / Team BRE# 70000218/ Office BRE #01499008