Bay Area Housing Market – The Real Estate Beat

How to Sell and Buy Real Estate in Today’s Market

Are you a Move Up Buyer in Silicon Valley? Then you know how hard it is to achieve that goal and make it a reality. It is much more challenging to sell and buy due to the market’s dynamics.

If you’re a Buyer in Silicon Valley, then you are well aware of how competitive it is to get a house, condo, or townhome. A Buyer may have started with the want list and then quickly condensed it.

What makes buying or move-up buying a challenge?

The Bay Area has limited space to build. Land is the gold of Real Estate; without land, you cannot build more homes. So, if you want to own a home around here, be prepared for possible bidding wars.

But if you’re a Buyer with a home to sell first, then you’re really up for a challenge. But! The Caton Team is here to help you create a plan for success.

Seller EXPECTATIONS in a Seller’s Market

If you’re a Seller these days, you have some expectations, and when the market is in your favor. It’s great.

During a Sellers market, with multiple Buyers for each home, a Buyer must put their best foot forward to succeed, and truly, this goes for any market. Here are some suggestions:

OFFER OVER LIST PRICE – sometimes even more than the Comparative Market Analysis (CMA) warrants. This can be frightening and can set up a Buyer for some surprises.
The Caton Team always prepares a CMA and gauges market activity to help a Buyer determine their right price. The Buyer will also choose the price they want to offer. We are here to guide you with data.

WAIVE CONTINGENCIES – These days, a Buyer should not ask for repairs but account for them. It’s also hard to request time to sell their current home first. If a Buyer wants to be a contender, it can feel like they must come in Non-Contingent and ready to close. Let me rephrase that. A Buyer should write their best offer, and if that includes a contingency, the Buyer must do what is best for them. Just know – if there are too many contingencies – generally that offer goes to the bottom of the stack because in a Sellers market, the Seller often has plenty of offers to choose from and does NOT have to accept a Contingent Offer. (Note, in cooler markets Buyers have more leverage and will have the opportunity to ask for contingencies.)

PROOF OF FUNDS – A Buyer MUST HAVE ALL their down payment, closing costs, and reserve monies ready from DAY 1! Not only for their bank loan approval, but Buyers also need proof of funds just to write a contending offer! To be frank, sometimes a great offer is beat out by an offer with “better” proof of funds – IE, money in the bank.

Each Seller and their Realtor will REQUIRE Proof of Funds to be submitted WITH the Offer. Meaning your Realtor needs recent copies of all your bank statements to be provided in your Offer Package to show the money for the downpayment, closing costs, and reserves are liquid and real. You would too if you were in the Seller seat. Our job as Realtors is to protect OUR Clients’ best interests. Meaning, when working with Sellers and reviewing offers, not only does The Caton Team call each lender to verify loan strength – we also want to see Proof of Funds totaling at minimum the monies for said deal AND reserve funds which are healthy and liquid to ensure – if things go awry – there are funds to close on time. In other words, the strongest reserves have an impact on what is considered the “Best” offer. It is not always price that equates to “Best”. (Curious why? – Ask us anytime – that topic is for another blog post.)

An example of a Buyer’s surprise is when the appraised value is lower than the offer price. The Buyer may want to pay the difference between the appraised value and the offer price, and that too is a conversation on what’s best for the client. There is no “cold feet” in Real Estate; quitting on a Non-Contingent Offer means the Buyer could forfeit all or a portion of their good faith deposit, which is 3% of the total purchase price. Note – each case is different, and this is just an example. Bottom line – selling Real Estate is serious business, and being prepared is the first step.

There are several more items that make up the Perfect Offer Package. If you want to stand out and succeed, contact The Caton Team today! We’re eager to chat and develop a personalized plan to help you reach your real estate goals.

Ok, so now you have an idea of what it takes to buy a home around here. Now, what do you do if you have a home to sell first? Bear with me on this – it is the hottest topic in Real Estate today.

HOW TO SELL THEN BUY

If you’re lucky enough to already be a Silicon Valley homeowner – congratulations! You’re ahead of the game. Right? Unless you need more space and want to move up.

The Caton Team has met many clients who opted to add onto their existing homes. Great! Unless that is not an option. Then we are back to square one; how does a Buyer sell, then buy in this market?

As I stated above in Seller Expectations, the “requirements” for contention can feel like a tall order. If your down payment funds are tied up in the equity of your home, you have several options, but only a few are viable.

DREAM OPTION

Rich Aunt Sally gifts you the money you need for the purchase of the home. Thank you, Aunt Sally. But what if we don’t have rich relatives?

SELL FIRST OPTION

This is the cut-and-dry option. Sell the home. Close Escrow. Move out and into a short-term rental or with relatives. Bank the proceeds of the sale – aka: the future downpayment and enjoy the Home Buying Experience at your own pace, knowing you can A) Prove your Funds are liquid and B) write an offer non-contingent on selling your home first. In a Seller’s market, an offer contingent on selling doesn’t always fly, and if it does, you’ve got to act fast and sell your home, as you will have a time frame. So your current home better be ready to go on the market, packed, inspected, and show-ready.

Oh – Did I mention this option is also terrifying? A Seller feels as if they are losing their only piece of California – the “what if we don’t get the next one” can be frightening. So it is important to weigh all options.

Next up…

SELL FIRST WITH RENT-BACK OPTION

Similar to the first scenario – except instead of moving out at the close ofescrow – the Seller is granted Rent Back to live in the home for an agreed-upon and short timeframe for a negotiated price, then move out – whether or not the Seller has acquired their next purchase. The advantage to this is the closing – the Seller has the proceeds in the bank and can write a non-contingent offer on their next home. The downside – it is a short-term solution – if the Seller doesn’t find their next home within the time frame, they will have to move out when the tenancy is over, no matter what. Also, of late, this is frowned upon due to insurance issues or higher premiums since the home is a “rental” in the eyes of the buyer’s bank, and that could equate to a higher interest rate on their loan. We see short-term rentals but longer ones – far less.

OBTAIN AN OFFER TO PURCHASE

This option is often the first step – the proverbial toe in the water. We, as your Realtors, will try to find a Buyer willing to do the following:

Offer to Purchase the home with an Extended Close of Escrow, giving the Seller time to acquire their next property (most likely contingent on closing on their current home), then quickly close on their next home – a domino closing effect. The downside, their proceeds are not in the bank, possibly hindering their chances. Their Proof of Funds will be short, and even if the owner writes a Non-Contingent Offer – we as Realtors know – it isn’t over until it’s over. In other words, when Sellers compare offers, the one with fewer strings attached generally wins. Even Non-Contingent Offers in this scenario are not as strong as Buyers ready, willing, and able to close on time. IE: Don’t have to close one house before they can close on the other. Confusing right?

That’s why, inevitably, if a client truly needs more space and cannot add on, they often are forced to sell first, rent, then buy because this market is too competitive to request contingencies from the Seller.

– Please don’t shoot the messenger –

THE BRIDGE LOAN

Another option is to obtain a bridge loan. A bridge loan gives the owner the opportunity to purchase their next home before selling their current home. This can be an expensive option. Interest rates and fees are higher. But it gives the client the peace of mind that they know where they’re going before they sell their current home, and they only move once.

THE LONG ROAD

Now here’s another idea – but it takes a few years, and you truly need to ask your CPA and Financial Advisor about this. The idea is to convert your primary residence into an investment property – then do a 1031 exchange. First, the Seller moves out. The Seller then converts their personal residence into a rental – renting it out for a minimum of 2 years. (I cannot give tax advice, so please verify with your CPA). After those two years, the Seller sells their home as a 1031 exchange, then buys their next home as another investment. The caveat – the Seller cannot move into their new home until it’s been rented for at least 2 years. Again, run this by your CPA, as tax laws change, and I am not a CPA. Anyway, this is the long-term approach. The good news, especially if you’re buying in the same community, even if prices rise, hopefully so will the value of your current investment.

Anyway, can you tell I have several clients in the same boat? Each client situation is unique. This blog post was really just me organizing my thoughts, then I figured – why not share this – if I can help someone make a better decision for their future, then I did my job today.

THINGS TO CONSIDER

No matter what you’re planning to do. The first true step in Real Estate is to apply for your loan and determine your affordability for the next purchase. Figuring out what your monthly payment is and how much of a down payment you need is the most crucial step. This will help us figure out how to move forward on your goal.

Does the home you have to sell have enough equity to be your down payment? Or will you need to bring funds to the table to have a more manageable monthly payment? What is a comfortable monthly payment for you?

There are many choices associated with this, and that is why The Caton Team is here to help. Email us at info@TheCatonTeam.com

Remember, Interest Rates will rise and fall, and impact a Buyer’s monthly outlay. This affects prices. Rates rise, which can diminish a Buyer’s buying power. As the interest rates rises the amount of the loan reduces. To remedy this, a Buyer will need to bring in more money towards the downpayment. Easy, if we have Aunt Sally on speed dial. If rates fall, we praise the Real Estate gods for their moment of affordability.

The Caton Team cannot forecast the future, but we have endured all sorts of markets and aided clients in various stages in our combined 40+ years. The more homework a client does now, the better. The market is dynamic and always changing. We don’t want to see a Buyer wait themselves out of the market, and in an inclining market, that can happen faster than you think. Timing the market is hard, so it is best to focus on your goals, whether buying or selling, and working within the market you are experiencing.

Bottom line, we are here to help. Ask us all your questions – we’re in the trenches, we know what homes are selling for before the internet gets wind. It’s wild out there, but we’ve got you covered. Susan and I (Sabrina) have over 40+ years combined local real estate experience. We represent our clients with integrity and grace. Our offer packages stand out and often just have the edge a Buyer needs in this market. Our Seller Package is successful, our negotiating is skilled, kind, and focused. We pride ourselves on being effective, efficient, and responsive.

Real Estate is multi-faceted, and this blog is just the tip of the iceberg. Each client has a unique set of needs. We value the sit-down appointment to get to know what you need, whether buying or selling a home in the Bay Area.

What Can The Caton Team Do For You?

Thank you for reading and forgiving my typos. I wrote this…

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The Caton Team believes, in order to be successful in the San Fransisco | Peninsula | Bay Area | Silicon Valley Real Estate Market we have to think and act differently. We do this by positioning our clients in the strongest light, representing them with the utmost integrity, while strategically maneuvering through negotiations and contracts. Together we make dreams come true.

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The Stats are In… Market Snapshot for Dec 2025 & Jan 2026

Hello Caton Team Friends,

The stats are in for Jan 2026 and December 2025. We saw a healthy December in San Mateo County with some adjustments in January. In my experience, in line with the habitual behavior of buyers in Winter. Condos are going strong, for those without balcony issues – which is a good indication of growth. We see the condo market as the first step to home ownership so we want to see healthy sales there, as buyers sell their condos and move into larger spaces, opening up that first rung to the next buyer.

What are your thoughts for the year ahead?

For my selling clients, life changes everyday and if you need to sell your home – let’s come up with a strategy to get you sold! Even in an odd market The Caton Team can help you strategically sell your home.

For my buyers, some homes are garnering multiple offers, but some are overlooked. With a little legwork, a buyer can truly find some great opportunities when they align with the market.

If you’re considering a Real Estate move, contact The Caton Team for a free consultation. With over 45+ years of combined Real Estate experience, we have the knowledge and know-how to guide you to your goal. Call us at 650.799.4333 or email us at info@TheCatonTeam.com.

Let’s see our month over month…

How can The Caton Team Help You?

Contact The Caton Team 650.799.4333 | Email Info@TheCatonTeam.com

Whether you are selling or buying – today or tomorrow – contact The Caton Team – we’re happy to help you achieve your Real Estate goals.

Effective. Efficient. Responsive. The Caton Team 🏡

Each market is unique and with over 40 years of combined Real Estate experience, The Caton Team is more than happy to be of service if and when you are considering a move. Contact us anytime during your journey, together we’ll help you achieve your Real Estate goals.

Got Questions? The Caton Team is here to help.

RECENTLY SOLD by THE CATON TEAM

Homes Sold by The Caton Team | Helping Our Buyers Find Their Way Home

Get exclusive inside access when you follow us on Facebook & Instagram

Got Real Estate Questions? The Caton Team is here to help.

We strive to be more than just Realtors – we are also your home resource. If you have any real estate questions, concerns, need a referral, or need some guidance – we are here for you. Contact us at your convenience – we are but a call, text or click away!

The Caton Team – Susan & Sabrina
A Family of Realtors
Effective. Efficient. Responsive.
What can we do for you?

Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices – Drysdale Properties

DRE # |Sabrina 01413526 | Susan 01238225 | Team 70000218 |Office 01499008

The Caton Team does not receive compensation for any posts. Information is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Third-party information not verified.

Home Sales To Remain in Low Gear as Balance Holds – Shared Article

In 2026, we expect a steadier housing market, but it’s not yet off to the races. Mortgage rates are forecast to average 6.3%, easing affordability pressures slightly, while home prices rise modestly by 2.2%. Existing-home sales should climb about 1.7% to 4.13 million, a small but meaningful gain from 2025’s near 30-year low. At the same time, for-sale inventory will continue to recover, up nearly 9% year over year.

I read this article HERE. By Anthony Smith

For homebuyers and sellers, the shift signals a more balanced market—one where price growth steadies, rate relief offers breathing room, and negotiating power tilts subtly toward buyers. Housing affordability improves as incomes outpace inflation, pushing the typical payment share of income below 30% for the first time since 2022.

Meanwhile, renters benefit from softening rents—especially in the South and West.

Forecast Table

	2026 Realtor.com Forecast	2025 Realtor.com Full-Year Expectations	2024 Historical Data	2013–19 Historical Average
Mortgage Rates	6.3% (avg); 6.3% (year-end)	6.6% (avg); 6.3% (year-end)	6.7% (avg); 6.7% (year-end)	4.0% (avg)
Existing-Home Median Price Appreciation (YoY)	+2.2%	+2.0%	+4.5%	+6.5%
Existing-Home Sales (YoY \| Annual Total)	+1.7% 4.13 million	+0.1% 4.07 million	-0.6% 4.06 million	+2.1% 5.28 million
Existing-Home For-Sale Inventory (YoY)	+8.9%	+15.2%	+15.2%	-3.6%
Single-Family Home Housing Starts (YoY \| Annual)	+3.1% 1.00 million	-4.3% 0.97 million	+6.9% 1.02 million	0.77 million
Homeownership Rate	64.8%	65.1%	65.6%	64.2%
Rent Growth	-1.0%	-1.4%	-0.6%	+5.2%

Home Sales Rise Modestly From Long-Term Lows

Existing-home sales are expected to edge up 1.7% in 2026 after a nearly flat 2025. Even with this modest rebound, existing-home sales will remain well below normal as high prices and financing costs continue to hold back demand.

If home sales eke out a gain in 2025, as anticipated, 2024 existing-home sales (4.06 million) will remain the record, 29-year low (in 1995, existing-home sales were 3,849,000). Looking ahead, we expect growth in home sales in 2026. Still, the improvement will be modest nationwide as familiar challenges—diminished affordability due to high prices and still-high mortgage rates—continue to weigh on homebuyers.

The mortgage rate lock-in effect—caused by market rates that are well above the rates on existing mortgages—has left many homeowners with a strong reason to stay put. In fact, recent data showed that 4 out of every 5 homeowners with a mortgage has a rate below 6%. The share has waned gradually, a trend that will continue in 2026. As a result, turnover will be limited with moves likely to be spurred by life necessities such as job or family changes.

Home Prices Climb, but Not in Real Terms

Home prices are expected to continue to climb in 2026, adding 2.2% for the typical home sold. These gains come on top of the 2% increase registered in 2025. However, inflation is expected to outpace these gains, with consumer prices likely growing more than 3%. That means real (inflation-adjusted) home prices will decline slightly for a second consecutive year.

This dynamic—nominal prices rising but real prices slipping—gradually improves affordability, even if it doesn’t feel like a dramatic shift to most buyers or sellers. Put simply, the sticker price of homes keeps going up, but the overall price level and incomes rise faster, meaning that it takes a smaller chunk of each paycheck to buy a home. The slow normalization process helps buyer incomes catch up.

Affordability Improves as Mortgage Rates Steady and Incomes Grow

Even though home prices are expected to go up, affordability is set to improve modestly in 2026. After higher-than-expected interest rates in most of 2025, mortgage rates finally relaxed in the second half of the year, dropping into the low 6% range. We expect the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate to remain roughly in this range throughout 2026, averaging 6.3%, as slowing economic growth and the end of the Fed’s quantitative tightening offset rising U.S. government debt and inflationary pressure that’s expected to be temporary. While this puts the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate on par with the last few months of 2025, it will mark a drop from 6.6% on average throughout 2025 as a whole.

The typical monthly payment to buy the median-priced home sold is expected to fall 1.3% year over year as home price growth moderates and mortgage rates drop on average. This will mark the first decline in monthly payments on average across the year since 2020. Furthermore, rising incomes, which should outpace inflation, give buyers more purchasing power, helping to shrink the share of a paycheck that has to be put toward the mortgage. The monthly payment to buy the typical home is expected to slip to 29.3% of median income, its first year below the 30% affordability threshold since 2022, when mortgage rates shot higher. The gains may be modest, but they mark an important shift toward better conditions for homebuyers.

For-Sale Inventory Recovery Slows, but Still Outpaces Sales

Even though we saw some sellers delist rather than accept disappointing terms in 2025, the housing inventory recovery continued. The number of active for-sale listings marked two years of consistent growth in October, and the pace of annual unsold inventory recovery is likely to match 2024. Nevertheless, the pace of recovery has slowed as the market approaches pre-pandemic norms, and we expect this to continue in 2026.

We project an 8.9% increase in active listings in 2026, marking a third consecutive year of gains. The pace of improvement has slowed, however, as the market edges closer to pre-pandemic norms. By year’s end, nationwide inventory levels are expected to remain roughly 12% below pre-2020 averages, an improvement from a 19% gap in 2025 and nearly 30% in 2024.

The national housing market will remain in balanced territory in 2026, averaging 4.6 months of supply across the year. Even so, momentum in the housing market is expected to tilt toward buyers as a more substantial growth in the number of homes for sale than homes sold shifts the balance of supply and demand. Housing affordability will remain a stumbling block for many, especially younger and first-time buyers, but negotiating power is expected to improve.

National Rent Softening Creates Mobility Opportunities Concentrated in the South and West

Renters are likely to see continued relief from declining rents in 2026, as a robust multifamily construction pipeline adds to rental supply and helps drive rents down. With more new units entering the market, vacancy rates are expected to approach—or even exceed—the long-term average of 7.2% observed between 2013 and 2019 by the end of 2026.

With rents declining for over two years and trends expected to continue in 2026, renter mobility is set to rise as more renters seek affordable housing or upgrades. Renters can find opportunities in markets such as Las Vegas, NV, Atlanta, GA, and Austin, TX, which have experienced the largest price drops from their peaks. At the same time, cross-market rental demand is expected to remain strong in metros like Raleigh, NC, and Richmond, VA, both emerging as top destinations for recent college graduates seeking affordability and career opportunities, as well as in Nashville, TN, which ranks among the nation’s top rental markets.

However, regional trends are expected to be a factor in the rental market in 2026. For renters living in expensive, high-density markets such as New York City, elevated rents will continue to pose significant affordability challenges. Even with rent freezes citywide—a policy preferred by Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani—and sustained income growth, it would take decades—not years—for rents in New York City to become truly affordable.

New-Construction Trends

New-home construction has faced headwinds in 2025, from new tariffs on lumber and home finishings to a pullback in buyer demand resulting from high mortgage rates and low consumer sentiment. Builders have responded by pulling back on permitting and starting new projects at the same time that they push to sell completed inventory by offering incentives to buyers like mortgage rate buydowns and cash at closing.

New construction has emerged as an affordable alternative to resale homes, with the price per square foot of new builds actually falling below that of existing homes. With the number of newly built homes for sale near an all-time high, builders are motivated sellers—and they provide healthy competition to sellers in the resale market. The inventory of existing homes for sale is lacking low-priced, entry-level options in many markets, so builders are likely to continue to fill that gap, offering smaller and more affordable homes such as townhomes and rowhomes, which have been growing in popularity.

The Economy Continues To Grow Even as It Shows Strains From a Period of Rapid Adjustment

Nominal economic growth in 2025 slowed modestly as the economy weathered sizable changes to trade, immigration, and tax policy. The slowdown moved real, after-inflation economic growth back to trend from a period of above-trend growth. A similar on-trend economic performance is expected in 2026.

Inflation, which has been a thorn in the economy’s side for nearly a half-decade, reached a significant low point in spring—headline inflation hit 2.3%, per the consumer price index. This progress wasn’t sustained, however, and inflation picked back up as new tariffs affected the costs of goods, a trend we expect to see in 2026.

As economists debate the degree to which the Fed needs to respond or look through these price shifts, wages have continued to outpace inflation, creating real additional spending power for consumers. This has enabled household budgets to continue to catch up from the recent inflation-driven squeeze.

But a softening jobs market driven by companies paring back hiring and in some cases shrinking their workforce as they plan to right-size in the face of expanding AI capabilities and investment has put a question mark on whether wage growth will continue with the same strength.

Our outlook for 2026 expects median household income growth of more than 3.6%, which is just expected to exceed inflation, as it edges back up past 3%. Unemployment, which was at 4.3% in August, is expected to climb further, but not exceed 5% in 2026. In aggregate, consumers look to be in good shape, but lower-income and younger individuals may be more vulnerable as the labor market cools.

But Economic and Policy Risks Abound

The U.S. economy has weathered notable challenges in 2025, and several risks could cloud the 2026 outlook. Policy uncertainty around fiscal and trade measures may influence both inflation and consumer confidence. While the federal government has reopened, the recent shutdown caused some permanent economic loss, and the temporary nature of the continuing resolution means fiscal risk looms again at the end of January.

The possibility of a Federal Reserve policy misstep—either remaining too tight or easing prematurely—remains a key concern. Further, the Fed will experience a leadership transition as Jerome Powell’s chairmanship ends on May 15, 2026. A successor has yet to be named, although several candidates have been publicly discussed. The chair plays a strong role as the lead public voice of the Federal Open Market Committee, the body that makes monetary policy decisions, but the chair is also just 1 vote of 12, so the role’s impact on monetary policy is more indirect and will vary depending on the characteristics of the person who fills the role.

A softening labor market poses another risk: If job losses accelerate or wage growth stalls, consumer spending could weaken, potentially dampening both housing demand and economic growth. Additionally, inflation could fluctuate depending on how tariffs, energy costs, and global supply conditions evolve.

While a full-blown recession is not the base case, the economy is in a period of accelerated adjustment where a “misshift” in policy or sentiment could cause a temporary setback that would have implications for the housing market.

Housing Perspectives

What will the market be like for homebuyers, especially first-time homebuyers?

Homebuyers will see modest improvement in their bargaining power in 2026, as affordability and inventory inch higher, building on the gains they saw in 2025. Although the national housing market will remain in balanced territory, there will be substantial regional variation. Already in 2025, at least seven major housing markets have crossed into buyer-friendly territory, and that list is likely to grow in 2026. This doesn’t mean that the housing market will be “easy” for buyers, but we do expect to see more sales in 2026, a sign that more buyers will be able to successfully navigate the market’s challenges.

How can homebuyers prepare?

As affordability remains a top concern, buyers want to be financially ready to find success in the 2026 housing market, and that means not only knowing your budget numbers but also understanding the market norms and cheat codes. Where will extra financial effort pay off, and which goals are not worth pursuing?

Recent data shows that down payments have leveled off as some of the market competitiveness releases pressure to compete here. Buyers don’t need a record-high amount of cash to successfully buy a home, but the down payment size can still affect monthly housing costs. A larger down payment can reduce monthly costs by lowering the amount borrowed and also the mortgage rate buyers may be able to secure. Research shows that even as the typical homebuyer does not get all the way to a 20% down payment, those who are close to that threshold will see a big drop in their mortgage rate if they meet the 20% target.

New construction is another option to consider, especially for buyers in the South and West, where builders have been particularly active. As builders see the number of for-sale homes climb, they are trying to compete and are increasingly offering incentives to help buyers get to the closing table. A recent Realtor.com® study showed that mortgage rate buydowns—when a builder offers special, below-market rate financing—are among the most commonly offered buyer incentives.

Buyers in the Northeast and Midwest may find new construction harder to come by since it generally comprises a smaller share of for-sale listings in these regions. However, metros in these regions tend to have more abundant fixer-uppers. Buying a home that needs work isn’t without challenges, but it may be a move to consider for those with skills and the readiness for a project.

What will the market be like for home sellers?

In 2025, sellers faced a year of rising home inventory and sluggish sales. These trends combined to nudge the housing market away from a seller’s market to a balanced market for the first time in nine years, as we anticipated in our 2025 housing forecast. This momentum is likely to continue in 2026, when sellers will face a market moving even further into balanced territory.

Sellers who definitely want to sell will want to pay attention to the competition when setting a price, and they may need to be prepared to adjust expectations based on market feedback. The degree of adjustment will depend on their geography and their price point. Recent data shows that price cuts are somewhat more common among lower-priced homes, and comparatively rare among homes priced above $1 million.

Sellers who list, but are inflexible on price or other terms, may not find a buyer willing to meet them. An increasing number of sellers in 2025 chose to delist and walk away from the market, and this trend could continue in 2026. Fortunately, the lengthy average tenure among today’s homeowners suggests that many are in a position to walk away with good money if they were to choose to sell.

One source of demand that has remained relatively steady comes from investors who comprise just over 1 in 10 homebuyers in the most recent quarter nationwide, and up to twice that share in some metros.

What will the market be like for renters?

In 2026, rental supply is expected to continue outpacing demand, driving down rents and increasing renter mobility—especially cross-market rental demand. While more new multifamily units are anticipated to enter the market, a slowdown in permitting activity—potentially linked to tariffs on construction materials—could pose headwinds to future rental supply growth and exert upward pressure on rents.

Nevertheless, rental affordability is expected to continue improving in 2026, making renting a consistently cost-effective option compared with buying in the short term across most markets. Young adult renters, who lack access to historically high home equity to purchase a home, could take advantage of this trend by searching for more budget-friendly options and saving money in the process.

When evaluating housing options, it’s important to consider both market trends and how long you plan to stay in your next home. The Realtor.com Rent vs. Buy Calculator helps individuals and families compare the costs and benefits of renting versus buying, showing how long it may take before buying becomes the more financially advantageous choice. By providing tailored insights, the tool helps users weigh current and future trade-offs.

Local Market Predictions

All real estate is local, and while the national trends are instructive, what matters most is what’s expected in your local market. See below for a list of the largest metro sales and price growth predictions in 2026.

Metro	2026 Sales Growth % YoY	2026 Price Growth % YoY
Akron, Ohio	0.6%	5.1%
Albany-Schenectady-Troy, N.Y.	-4.1%	7.5%
Albuquerque, N.M.	-4.3%	3.5%
Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, Pa.-N.J.	-13.6%	5.9%
Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, Ga.	-3.5%	-0.1%
Augusta-Richmond County, Ga.-S.C.	-4.9%	1.3%
Austin-Round Rock, Texas	-7.0%	2.0%
Bakersfield, Calif.	1.8%	4.3%
Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, Md.	-2.6%	8.3%
Baton Rouge, La.	7.1%	2.2%
Birmingham-Hoover, Ala.	0.0%	6.2%
Boise City, Idaho	3.7%	-0.8%
Boston-Cambridge-Newton, Mass.-N.H.	4.7%	2.6%
Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk, Conn.	1.0%	6.9%
Buffalo-Cheektowaga-Niagara Falls, N.Y.	-0.2%	1.9%
Cape Coral-Fort Myers, Fla.	-0.8%	-10.2%
Charleston-North Charleston, S.C.	-7.6%	3.3%
Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, N.C.-S.C.	-2.4%	1.1%
Chattanooga, Tenn.-Ga.	0.4%	5.6%
Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, Ill.-Ind.-Wis.	-2.3%	4.4%
Cincinnati, Ohio-Ky.-Ind.	-3.2%	3.1%
Cleveland-Elyria, Ohio	-2.0%	6.3%
Colorado Springs, Colo.	-4.2%	-0.4%
Columbia, S.C.	0.3%	7.2%
Columbus, Ohio	-2.1%	4.0%
Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, Texas	-5.4%	1.8%
Dayton, Ohio	-1.3%	6.3%
Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL	-0.5%	-3.6%
Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, Colo.	-2.9%	-3.4%
Des Moines-West Des Moines, Iowa	-4.7%	-0.9%
Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, Mich	-1.2%	4.2%
Durham-Chapel Hill, N.C.	1.0%	2.9%
El Paso, Texas	-7.0%	2.8%
Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers, AR	0.5%	6.3%
Fresno, Calif.	2.1%	2.8%
Grand Rapids-Wyoming, Mich	6.9%	3.7%
Greensboro-High Point, N.C.	-10.9%	4.4%
Greenville-Anderson-Mauldin, S.C.	-8.1%	3.1%
Harrisburg-Carlisle, Pa.	1.0%	4.0%
Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, Conn.	7.6%	9.5%
Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, Texas	-0.6%	0.4%
Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson, Ind.	-6.4%	6.6%
Jackson, MS	-0.4%	4.6%
Jacksonville, Fla.	-6.9%	-1.4%
Kansas City, Mo.-Kan.	1.7%	5.4%
Kiryas Joel-Poughkeepsie-Newburgh, NY	-10.8%	0.7%
Knoxville, Tenn.	-6.4%	3.9%
Lakeland-Winter Haven, Fla.	1.5%	-0.2%
Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, Nev.	-2.5%	0.6%
Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, Ark.	3.9%	4.6%
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, Calif.	1.8%	1.8%
Louisville/Jefferson County, Ky.-Ind.	5.1%	3.5%
Madison, Wis.	2.7%	2.2%
McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, Texas	3.3%	4.6%
Memphis, Tenn.-Miss.-Ark.	-7.7%	1.8%
Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, Fla.	-7.1%	1.1%
Milwaukee-Waukesha-West Allis, Wis.	3.5%	7.0%
Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, Minn.-Wis.	3.8%	1.2%
Nashville-Davidson–Murfreesboro–Franklin, Tenn.	-3.5%	0.5%
New Haven-Milford, Conn.	2.3%	7.7%
New Orleans-Metairie, La.	-4.4%	5.8%
New York-Newark-Jersey City, N.Y.-N.J.-Pa.	-4.4%	5.2%
North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, Fla.	0.8%	-8.9%
Oklahoma City, Okla.	-6.1%	1.1%
Omaha-Council Bluffs, Neb.-Iowa	3.1%	-0.4%
Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, Fla.	-4.7%	-1.6%
Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, Calif.	2.5%	0.9%
Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, Fla.	1.6%	-1.0%
Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, Pa.-N.J.-Del.-Md.	-5.1%	5.7%
Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, Ariz.	4.9%	-2.3%
Pittsburgh, Pa.	4.0%	5.7%
Portland-South Portland, Maine	4.7%	4.6%
Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, Ore.-Wash.	-2.5%	0.2%
Providence-Warwick, R.I.-Mass.	7.1%	4.1%
Raleigh, N.C.	-4.4%	-3.7%
Richmond, Va.	3.6%	6.9%
Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, Calif.	-1.4%	1.5%
Rochester, N.Y.	5.3%	10.3%
Sacramento–Roseville–Arden-Arcade, Calif.	1.5%	-3.3%
St. Louis, Mo.-Ill.	2.2%	3.1%
Salt Lake City, Utah	4.2%	1.7%
San Antonio-New Braunfels, Texas	0.4%	0.2%
San Diego-Carlsbad, Calif.	2.3%	0.7%
San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, Calif.	2.5%	-2.5%
San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, Calif.	0.0%	0.7%
Scranton–Wilkes-Barre–Hazleton, Pa.	-6.2%	10.9%
Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, Wash.	4.2%	-0.3%
Spokane-Spokane Valley, Wash.	8.1%	-3.5%
Stockton-Lodi, Calif.	-5.7%	-4.1%
Syracuse, N.Y.	-5.7%	12.4%
Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, Fla.	-3.1%	-3.6%
Toledo, Ohio	-1.2%	13.1%
Tucson, Ariz.	-1.5%	-0.5%
Tulsa, Okla.	2.2%	2.3%
Urban Honolulu, Hawaii	2.3%	2.6%
Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, Va.-N.C.	-3.6%	6.6%
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-Va.-Md.-W. Va.	-1.3%	5.1%
Wichita, Kan.	-3.2%	3.1%
Winston-Salem, N.C.	-0.2%	7.7%
Worcester, Mass.-Conn.	12.6%	2.4%

Methodology

The Realtor.com model-based forecast uses data on the housing market and overall economy to estimate values for these variables for the year ahead. The forecast result is a projection for annual total home sales increase (total 2026 existing-home sales vs. 2025) and annual median home sales price increase (2026 median existing-home sales price vs. 2025).

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The Caton Team believes, in order to be successful in the San Francisco | Peninsula | Bay Area | Silicon Valley Real Estate Market, we have to think and act differently. We do this by positioning our clients in the strongest light, representing them with the utmost integrity, while strategically maneuvering through negotiations and contracts. Together we make dreams come true.

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The Stats are In… Market Snapshot for November 2025

Hello Caton Team Friends,

The stats are in for November 2025. We are seeing the normal pre-holiday activity or lack there of. Affordability is still an issue here, the interest rates haven’t moved enough to make any headway. The luxury end is holding up – but our more affordable price points are feeling it. With the cost of living on the rise I am curious what 2026 will bring. What are your thoughts?

For my buyers, some homes are garnering multiple offers, but some are overlooked. With a little legwork, a buyer can truly find some great opportunities when they align with the market.

Let’s see our month over month…

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NAR Members Sound the Alarm on the Effects of the Government Shutdown – Shared Article

I read this article HERE.

Responses from more than 600 real estate professionals describe the negative effects of closing crucial housing, loan and insurance programs offered through FHA, HUD, VA and NFIP.

On Oct. 22, a few weeks into the federal government shutdown, the National Association of REALTORS® issued a Call For Information to its full membership to take the pulse on the ramifications for real estate professionals and their clients.

Unlike a traditional Call For Action (CFA), which prompts members to simply click and send a message to their members of Congress, this request invited NAR members to share their own stories about how the government shutdown was impacting their clients, businesses and communities.

“What’s at stake for housing and homeownership nationwide is important for Americans to thrive and step into their dreams,” wrote one member. “Our government must reopen for the people.”

The response rate was remarkable: 641 members from all 50 states, Washington, D.C., and Puerto Rico submitted firsthand accounts, representing 386 local associations—about 35% of all associations nationwide. While engagement metrics differ from a one-click CFA, the volume and depth of these NAR member responses underscored the power of REALTORS® as trusted messengers on the front lines of the housing market.

The Call For Information shows:

35.6% of stories mention one of more federal housing programs, like the Federal Housing Administration (FHA), U.S. Department of Housing & Urban Development (HUD), Internal Revenue Service (IRS), National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP), U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), and U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs (VA).
The most frequently cited impacts were USDA, VA, NFIP/Flood Insurance and FHA.
There were over 60 stories highlighting hardship, family strain, or the domino effects of delayed transactions.
259 unique associations were represented in responses (approximately 24% of local boards)

Collapsing Deals, Low Morale

Perhaps unsurprisingly, most responses were from high-population states including Florida, Texas and California.

One North Carolina agent, who is a REALTOR®, explained that home sales are being delayed due to holdups in NFIP flood insurance renewals and USDA loan approvals, two essential programs for the state’s coastal and rural areas. In some North Carolina communities, almost every financed home purchase relies on one or both of these federal services. As a result, deals are collapsing, and families are losing the homes they’ve worked tirelessly to obtain.

The effects extend well beyond the housing market: Many North Carolinians, including military families and federal employees, are struggling to afford basic necessities, while local small businesses that depend on their spending are seeing steep drops in revenue. “The financial strain is real, the morale is low, and the longer this continues, the harder recovery will be for working families and small businesses alike,” the member reported.

Many other members reported similar experiences, with clients often feeling uncertain about the real estate market and experiencing a lack of consumer confidence. This uncertainty frequently led to stalled transactions, disrupting multiple deals, and affecting buyers, sellers, agents, lenders and contractors alike.

‘A Train Wreck’ for Escrows, Military Families and Local Businesses

“As a REALTOR®, I am seeing firsthand how the federal government shutdown is disrupting the housing market,” one member in California said. “As a NAR member, I want to help illustrate the real impacts the shutdown has had on my business, clients and community—such as delayed FHA, VA or conventional loans, especially without access to government flood insurance. Military families are being stifled by this shutdown, with delayed loans and added strain to their finances. This is a deterrent for our military service members who give their lives willingly to serve this country. Sellers are unsure about proceeding due to market volatility and concerns about affordability. So many buyers are being impacted as the buyer pool has diminished.”

The member continued: “Additionally, in California, obtaining flood insurance has become a major problem, so having sources available from the government has allowed us to close our escrows. However, without these options, due to the shutdown, it’s a train wreck for our escrows leaving us with delays and obstacles to struggle to get our escrows closed.”

Chipping Away at the Foundation

The shutdown may be centered in Washington, but its costs are being paid in every community across America.

“The National Association of REALTORS® urges Congress to come together and pass a clean, bipartisan continuing resolution or a long-term funding package to restore stability to the housing market and the broader economy. Every day that passes without action chips away at the foundation of the American Dream,” says Shannon McGahn, NAR executive vice president and chief advocacy officer.

Michael Rauber

Michael Rauber is manager of advocacy communications at the National Association of REALTORS®.

Content by Michael Rauber

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The Stats are In… Market Snapshot for Sept & Oct 2025

Hello Caton Team Friends,

The stats are in for September and October 2025. Where September showed some price adjustments down in the single family home sector – for October we are seeing growth. That dip in interest rates sure helped. Going from around 7% to 6% and then some down to the 5% level, gave buyers some breathing room and opportunity to act.

I still feel this year has been an odd year. Condo markets took a hit with many taking care of maintenance and safety issues that tapped into their reserves and bringing them down. Some fell off the “good” list and we hope to see those condos come back in full force as the condo market is so important for first time buyers.

For my selling clients, lives change everyday and if you need to sell your home – let’s come up with a strategy to get you sold! Even in a weird market The Caton Team can help you strategically sell your home.

For my buyers, some homes are garnering multiple offers, but some are overlooked. With a little legwork, a buyer can truly find some great opportunities when they align with the market.

Let’s see our month over month…

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Whether you are selling or buying – today or tomorrow – contact The Caton Team – we’re happy to help you achieve your Real Estate goals.

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The Caton Team does not receive compensation for any posts. Information is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Third-party information not verified.

The Stats are In… Market Snapshot for August 2025

Hello Caton Team Friends,

The stats are in for August 2025. We are seeing a slight price adjustment in San Mateo County for Single Family Homes but the rest of the Bay is seeing growth. Feels like the Summer Selling Season is starting late but it’s starting.

For my selling clients, lives change everyday and if you need to sell your home – let’s come up with a strategy to get you sold!

For my buyers, some homes are garnering multiple offers, but some are overlooked. With a little legwork, a buyer can truly find some great opportunities when they align with the market.

If you’re considering a Real Estate move, contact The Caton Team for a free consultation. With over 40 years of combined Real Estate experience, we have the knowledge and know-how to guide you to your goal. Call us at 650.799.4333 or email us at info@TheCatonTeam.com.

Let’s see our month over month…

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The Caton Team does not receive compensation for any posts. Information is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Third-party information not verified.

The Stats are In… Market Snapshot for July 2025

Hello Caton Team Friends,

The stats are in for July 2025. The last 30 days reflect a softening of the market with values adjusting down. This is part of the normal summer slowdown as folks are off on vacation before summer ends. However, this whole year hits different from the year past. Job changes, market insecurity, and tariffs have many people on the fence about their next move, and who can blame them? However, in my gut, I know this: if you want to live and stay in the Bay Area, the best time to buy is during a weird market. Why, you ask? Well, in our “normal” market, which is characterized by low inventory and high demand, most buyers face multiple offers and often experience huge overbidding. When the market is weird, when other buyers are on the fence, we see opportunity. A home can only be sold once, so when multiple bids are the norm, folks get priced out pretty quickly. This year, not a day goes by that I don’t see a price adjustment down, meaning there is a gap between what sellers want/expect and what buyers can afford. Those interest rates changed things.

Now is a great time to buy – even sell. Not every property has a price adjustment. We sold a 100+ year home this year, over list price with multiple offers.

For my buyers, some homes are garnering multiple offers, but some are overlooked. With a little legwork, a buyer can truly find some great opportunities when they align with the market.

Let’s see our month over month…

How can The Caton Team Help You?

Contact The Caton Team 650.799.4333 | Email Info@TheCatonTeam.com

Whether you are selling or buying – today or tomorrow – contact The Caton Team – we’re happy to help you achieve your Real Estate goals.

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We love what we do and would love to help you navigate your sale or purchase of Residential Real Estate. Please reach out at your convenience for a personal consultation. Please enjoy our free resources below and get to know our team through our clients’ words>>>Testimonials.

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The Stats are In… Market Snapshot for June 2025

Hello Caton Team Friends,

The stats are in for June 2025. What I see is price sensitivity. There is a lot of inventory on the market compared to years past, there is change in the air and it reflects in sales. We see some homes fetch multiple offers and sell over list price, but not crazy over. We also see some homes sitting and taking price reductions to attract offers. This year just feels different from the past 21 summers I’ve been in Real Estate. But that is not necessarily a bad thing. When the market is different that often is a great time to buy. All depends on where, when and the budget. So…. If you’re considering a Real Estate move, contact The Caton Team for a free consultation. With over 40 years of combined Real Estate experience, we have the knowledge and know-how to guide you to your goal. Call us at 650.799.4333 or email us at info@TheCatonTeam.com.